Petrol Price Drop Expected in South Africa Next Week Despite Rand Volatility

South Africans may breathe a sigh of relief next week as fuel prices are set to drop across the board, despite ongoing concerns about the rand’s volatility. The Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) latest update shows a continued overrecovery on fuel prices, signalling the second consecutive decrease in May.

According to CEF data, 95 octane petrol is projected to fall by 19 cents per litre, while 93 octane petrol could drop by 18 cents. Diesel users can expect a steeper cut of 37 cents per litre, and illuminating paraffin prices may dip by 28 cents per litre.

This expected relief at the pump is largely driven by falling international product prices. Although the rand has remained unstable—reaching a high of R19.93 to the dollar earlier in April—it has begun trending positively, hovering closer to R18.60/$ as political tensions ease and global sentiment improves.

Expected Price Cuts (from 7 May 2025):

• Petrol 93: ↓ 18 cents per litre

• Petrol 95: ↓ 19 cents per litre

• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): ↓ 37 cents per litre

• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): ↓ 37 cents per litre

• Illuminating Paraffin: ↓ 28 cents per litre

Rand Recovers Amid Political and Economic Shifts

The rand’s turbulent performance over the past month was fuelled by uncertainty around South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) and controversial fiscal policy proposals. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s attempt to raise VAT as part of Budget 2.0 caused political friction, especially with the DA’s refusal to support the budget.

The DA later challenged and won a court ruling to halt a VAT increase from 15% to 15.5% that was scheduled for 1 May. With Budget 2.0 now withdrawn and political parties recommitting to cooperation, the financial markets have responded positively.

Oil Prices Driving Fuel Relief

Oil prices, another major factor in South Africa’s fuel cost structure, dipped sharply in April amid growing fears of a global slowdown sparked by renewed trade tensions between the US and China.

However, a rebound in crude prices has begun, thanks to signs of easing tensions between the two superpowers. China recently opened the door to negotiations with the US, improving global economic sentiment and crude oil outlooks.

Despite this, oil markets remain cautious. OPEC+ members are divided on whether to increase production, which could influence supply and pricing in the coming months. Meanwhile, the threat of US sanctions on Iranian oil has added uncertainty to the global supply chain.

What This Means for Consumers

While the outlook is currently positive for motorists, Investec economist Annabel Bishop warns that the rand remains highly sensitive to both local politics and global financial shifts. Continued volatility or further political drama could quickly reverse gains.

For now, though, South Africans can expect a welcome break at the fuel pumps starting 7 May—just in time for the winter drive season.

{Source: BusinessTech}

Follow Joburg ETC on Facebook, Twitter , TikTok and Instagram

For more News in Johannesburg, visit joburgetc.com