More Fuel Price Relief Expected for June as Rand Strengthens and Oil Stays Soft

South African drivers are set to enjoy another drop in fuel prices in June 2025, marking what could be the fourth consecutive monthly cut. Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to strong over-recoveries, particularly for diesel, and decent drops for petrol as well.

This is largely due to two key factors: a firmer rand and global oil prices remaining under pressure — both combining to lower the cost of imported fuel.

Mid-Month Projections: Petrol and Diesel Set to Drop

If current trends hold for the rest of May, the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy is likely to announce the following price cuts for June:

While LP Gas data isn’t provided in the CEF’s daily snapshots, the overall outlook suggests continued downward pressure on prices.

Why Are Prices Falling?

The rand has made a significant recovery in May, rebounding from April’s lows of nearly R20 to the dollar to trading around R18.20. This reversal is due in part to easing global trade tensions and local political developments.

Globally, US President Donald Trump’s administration has taken a softer approach to its trade war rhetoric, particularly towards China. This shift has restored a sense of calm in markets, encouraging investors to return to riskier emerging market assets like the rand.

Locally, political uncertainty surrounding the Government of National Unity (GNU) has also eased. The National Treasury is set to present its revised budget on 21 May 2025, reportedly with the backing of major GNU partners such as the ANC and DA.

Rand Recovery Supports Lower Import Costs

A stronger rand means South Africa pays less for imported crude oil, directly benefiting motorists. Although oil prices have rebounded slightly — up from April’s sub-$60 a barrel to just over $64 — they remain subdued.

Bloomberg analysts warn that volatility remains, with conflicting signals from US foreign policy and potential increases in oil supply from OPEC+ and Iran. This supply overhang could keep oil prices low for the rest of the year, continuing to support lower pump prices in South Africa.

What This Means at the Pumps

Here’s how the expected changes will reflect across the country:

Inland Region (e.g. Gauteng)

Coastal Region (e.g. Durban, Cape Town)

While nothing is confirmed until the Department makes its official announcement at the end of the month, the current data suggests more good news for South African motorists.

However, with geopolitical tensions and oil market volatility still lingering, future pricing will remain sensitive to global developments. For now, June looks set to bring a welcome breather for consumers and businesses alike.

{Source: BusinessTech}

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