Relief at the Pumps: Petrol Prices Set to Drop in August, but Diesel Costs Still Rising

South Africans could see some welcome relief at petrol stations in August, with fuel prices expected to dip, but diesel users won’t be as lucky.

For many South African motorists, July has been a tough ride. Between global oil price swings and looming trade war threats, the cost of driving seemed poised to climb again. But there’s good news for petrol drivers: early data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to a significant petrol price decrease on the horizon.

And while the diesel outlook remains grim, thanks to refining costs and stubborn global trends, a resilient rand is helping to shield consumers from the worst.

Here’s What You Can Expect at the Pumps in August

According to the latest mid-month update, fuel prices in South Africa are trending in different directions:

• Petrol 93: down by 26 cents per litre

• Petrol 95: down by 23 cents per litre

• Diesel 0.05%: up by 58 cents per litre

• Diesel 0.005%: up by 56 cents per litre

• Paraffin: up by 22 cents per litre

In plain terms, if you’re filling up with unleaded petrol, August will bring some relief. But if you rely on diesel — especially in logistics, transport or agriculture, you’ll need to brace for higher costs.

Global Oil Prices Hold Steady (For Now)

Oil prices have climbed slightly in recent weeks, moving from around $66 to nearly $70 a barrel. The catalyst? Uncertainty following US President Donald Trump’s tariff ultimatum, which includes a 30% tariff on South African exports effective from 1 August.

While this would normally spook global markets, the three-week delay in enforcement has given traders time to digest the impact, tempering the oil price reaction.

Still, with a fragile truce between Israel and Iran holding and OPEC+ output levels stable, supply has outpaced demand, keeping oil prices from surging. That’s helped keep the petrol over-recovery steady.

Rand Resilience Softens the Blow

The rand has been doing its part too, hovering around R17.77 to the US dollar, stronger than it was in June when it flirted with R19.00/$. According to Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop, this isn’t so much because of local strength, but because of US dollar weakness amid global uncertainty.

The stronger rand is currently contributing about 10 cents per litre toward the petrol over-recovery. But Bishop warns the local currency is not out of the woods yet.

“The US frequently moves the goalposts on trade,” she said. “We expect a volatile period ahead, especially with the AGOA trade agreement still in limbo.”

Tariff Trouble Ahead?

Trump’s announcement that the “Liberation Day” tariffs would take effect on 1 August has kept markets on edge. The 30% tariff could hit South African vehicle, agriculture, iron and aluminium exports hard.

There’s still a small window for negotiation, but should the tariff go ahead, demand for South African goods could fall, and the rand could weaken, reversing the gains that have helped keep fuel prices down.

With the loss of AGOA also looming, analysts expect the rand could slide past R18/$ in the third quarter, which could drive up fuel prices again in September.

Enjoy It While It Lasts

If you’re a petrol driver in South Africa, August is shaping up to offer a rare reprieve. But that relief may be short-lived. Diesel prices are already rising, and if the rand weakens in response to trade tensions, September could be a different story.

For now, though, enjoy the break at the pumps, just keep one eye on Washington, and the other on the exchange rate.

Have your say: Are you feeling the pinch of fuel hikes? Has your driving routine changed? Tag us on social media with #FuelWatchSA and join the conversation.

{Source: BusinessTech}

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