Eskom’s diesel splurge keeps the lights on – but South Africans could be left with the bill

A rare winter without rolling blackouts

South Africa is enjoying something it hasn’t seen in years: a largely load-shedding-free winter. For many, it feels like a miracle — heaters, kettles and geysers humming without the dreaded “Stage 6” alerts popping up on WhatsApp groups.

But behind the scenes, that stability is coming at a staggering cost. According to the Minerals Council South Africa’s July 2025 electricity update, Eskom has been burning through billions in diesel to keep its open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) running during peak demand hours. Between 1 April and 24 July alone, the utility spent R5.616 billion on diesel — almost half of what it spent in the entire previous financial year.

Medupi’s return helps, but diesel is still doing the heavy lifting

Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) — the key measure of how much of its fleet is available — rose to 63.9% in June, a jump of 3.6 percentage points. The return of Medupi Unit 4 (adding 800 MW) and reduced unplanned maintenance gave the grid a welcome boost.

However, economist André Lourens, who compiled the council’s analysis, cautions that this improved performance is still heavily propped up by OCGTs — and diesel spending has already blown past Eskom’s “worst-case” winter forecast by nearly R460 million.

History shows the bill eventually comes due

Eskom insists the current diesel budget is “under control”, but South Africans have heard this before. During the height of the energy crisis, the utility spent R15 billion on diesel in a single year. That debt didn’t just disappear — it became one of the reasons behind Eskom’s aggressive tariff hike requests to the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa).

Energy analyst Matthew Cruise warns the pattern is repeating. “High diesel use has been a major driver behind tariff applications,” he said. “Even if the spending is budgeted for now, it adds to Eskom’s financial strain, which feeds into higher electricity prices later.”

Coal costs creeping up too

It’s not just diesel. The cost of coal — Eskom’s primary fuel source — is also rising, adding more pressure to generation costs. This means that even if diesel use drops later in the year, consumers could still be hit with a double whammy: higher tariffs from diesel debt and increases driven by coal prices.

The calm before a financial storm?

With just weeks left in Eskom’s official winter outlook period, the utility says it’s “adequately prepared” to meet demand. But history suggests this short-term stability could lead to long-term pain for households and businesses.

For now, the lights are on. But when next year’s electricity bills land, South Africans might find that the real cost of this “miracle winter” wasn’t measured in kilowatts — it was measured in rands.

Source:Business Tech 

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