Why US Tariffs Could Make Coffee Cheaper for South Africans

For months, South Africans have been wincing at the cost of their morning cappuccino. Coffee prices have been climbing relentlessly, with inflation in the beverage category hitting a staggering 16.4% in June. But a surprising twist in global politics — US trade tariffs — may bring some temporary relief.

Coffee Struggles at Home

Stats SA data shows that food and beverage inflation remains stubbornly high, with coffee standing out as one of the steepest risers. While the cost of items like maize meal, milk, and eggs has eased, coffee has refused to follow suit. Local roasters such as Quaffee warn that shortages, high labour and fertiliser costs, and currency fluctuations are keeping pressure on prices.

Global conditions haven’t helped either. Brazil, the world’s biggest supplier, has been battered by extreme weather. Vietnam, another key exporter, has endured drought, while Indonesia has seen crops destroyed by excessive rains. The result? Tighter supply chains, lower harvests, and higher costs trickling down to South African shelves.

A Twist from Washington

On 7 August, the US slapped a 30% tariff on South African goods. At first glance, this looked like more bad news. But when Washington expanded its tariff war to include Brazil, India, and Vietnam — all major agricultural exporters — a strange opportunity opened for South Africa.

Shut out of the US market, these coffee giants now face the challenge of finding new buyers for their crops. For Brazil, which supplies most of South Africa’s coffee, the quickest solution might be to sell at lower prices to other countries, including us.

Economist Thabile Nkunjane from the National Agricultural Marketing Council explains: “Two things are going to happen for Brazil. Either they find alternative markets immediately — which is unlikely — or they will have to sell their coffee at relatively lower prices. For us, as buyers, this could be a bargain.”

What This Means for Your Daily Cup

If the predictions hold, South Africans may soon notice slightly cheaper beans in stores and cafés. That could ease the pain of months of relentless increases, at least for a while. On social media, coffee lovers are already hopeful, with some joking that “Trump might have just saved our flat whites.”

But experts caution against celebrating too soon. Brazil’s weather challenges remain, and another poor harvest could erase any benefits. There’s also the risk that Brazil and other suppliers will diversify their markets, preventing a flood of cheaper coffee into South Africa.

Short-Term Relief, Long-Term Questions

For now, the tariffs might offer a silver lining: cheaper imports and a bit of breathing room for local consumers. Yet, the global coffee trade remains fragile, and the price of your cappuccino could just as easily swing upward again.

In other words, enjoy that slightly cheaper latte while you can — it may not last.

Source:Business Tech 

Follow Joburg ETC on Facebook, Twitter , TikTok and Instagram

For more News in Johannesburg, visit joburgetc.com