South Africa Should Look Beyond Trump: Experts Warn Pretoria to Focus on the Long Game

South Africa Told: Stop Chasing Short-Term Wins with Trump

South Africa should stop chasing what one analyst calls “a temporary mirage” quick trade wins with the Trump administration and instead, start preparing for a world after Donald Trump. That’s the view of Dominic Maphaka, a political studies lecturer at North-West University, who believes the country risks wasting time on negotiations that won’t hold up once political winds shift in Washington.

“Trump will be gone in three years,” Maphaka says, “and the Republicans are unlikely to retain victory. His views are driven by non-scientific, racially loaded assumptions. South Africa shouldn’t be trying to overexplain itself to someone who’s not listening.”

Trump’s Social Media Outburst Sparks Concern

The warning came just days after Trump took to Truth Social to announce that no US officials would attend the G20 summit in Johannesburg, accusing South Africa of “hosting genocide against whites” and referencing land reform policies.

The remarks were widely condemned across South African social media, where users mocked Trump’s post as “uninformed” and “ironic,” given America’s own racial tensions.

In diplomatic circles, however, the statement carried heavier implications. It cast doubt on whether Washington would consider reducing the 30% tariffs Trump imposed on South African exports a key point of ongoing negotiation between Pretoria and senior US officials.

Durban, Tariffs, and the Bigger Picture

For months, South Africa has been lobbying for tariff relief to help exporters recover from post-pandemic losses. But Maphaka says Pretoria’s energy might be better spent building alliances with non-aligned economies, particularly within BRICS and the African Union.

“Trump’s policies are transactional,” he argues. “They don’t consider the long-term relationship or South Africa’s regional influence. Pretoria needs a strategy that lasts beyond one administration.”

The G20 Drama: Who Holds the Baton?

While Trump has refused to send a representative to the 2025 G20 Summit in Johannesburg, he has already declared that he “looks forward” to hosting the 2026 G20 in Miami even though he has yet to formally accept the presidency of the group from President Cyril Ramaphosa.

The irony hasn’t gone unnoticed. Analysts are questioning whether Trump could even attempt to bar South Africa’s participation in the Miami summit.

But experts say the G20 doesn’t work that way. It’s not an American institution it’s a global economic forum representing 85% of the world’s GDP, including heavyweights from the EU, AU, and Global South. Any attempt to exclude South Africa would likely meet unified resistance.

‘Erratic but Strategic’: Understanding Trump’s Moves

For Professor John Stremlau of the University of the Witwatersrand, Trump’s actions fit a familiar pattern, unpredictable but deliberate. “Trump’s behaviour is erratic,” Stremlau said, “but he learned from his father that white nationalism and bullying work for him politically.”

Stremlau points to Executive Order 3, issued in February 2025, as a worrying sign of Trump’s direction. The order cut off all aid to South Africa while welcoming Afrikaner refugees, a decision many called racially motivated.

“That’s when I knew the bilateral relationship would be rocky,” he added. “He’s isolating South Africa while courting domestic nationalist sentiment.”

Political Winds Are Shifting

But the global mood may not be in Trump’s favour. The Democratic sweep in recent US midterms has raised questions about whether his party can sustain support. Some analysts suggest that even moderate Republicans could break ranks and support lowering tariffs on South Africa, seeking to repair international goodwill.

Stremlau says the bigger test will come in 2026: “How will the G20 respond? Will nations downgrade their participation in Miami, or will they push to move the summit elsewhere? That will reveal how much patience the world has left for Trump-style diplomacy.”

South Africa’s Next Move

If there’s one clear takeaway, it’s that South Africa must start playing the long game. Trump’s anti-SA rhetoric might dominate headlines, but the future of global cooperation won’t hinge on one administration’s stance.

Pretoria’s challenge now is to strengthen continental alliances, diversify its export partners, and avoid getting dragged into Washington’s political theatre.

As Maphaka puts it, “Governments come and go. What matters is the strategy that remains.”

{Source: The Citizen}

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