More Than a Local Contest: The Johannesburg Proxy War Shaping the ANC’s Future

The real battle at the ANC’s Greater Johannesburg regional conference this week isn’t just about who will chair the party in South Africa’s economic heartland. It’s a high-stakes proxy war, with the outcomes directly tied to the 2027 national conference and the ambitions of two of the party’s most powerful figures: Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula and his deputy, Nomvula Mokonyane.

According to insiders, the local contest is a crystallisation of national succession politics. Outgoing chair Dada Morero is a firm Mbalula ally, seen as a crucial building block for the Secretary-General’s provincial and national machinery heading into 2027. His opponent, outgoing deputy regional secretary Loyiso Masuku, is aligned with Mokonyane, who is reportedly eyeing the party’s deputy presidency.

A Conference on a Knife-Edge

The conference has descended into classic ANC horse-trading, with the Morero camp reportedly in disarray. While Masuku’s faction has presented a united five-person slate, Morero’s side is said to be fractured, with multiple candidates vying for each position. This split threatens to dilute their voting bloc, handing an advantage to the more organised Masuku group.

“Mbalula was announced as a last-minute addition to the programme… a clear indication that the Morero camp had ‘called in some reinforcement’,” an insider noted, highlighting the national stakes. For Mbalula, a Morero loss would be a significant setback, depriving him of a potential Gauteng provincial secretary who could campaign for his interests in 2027.

The Soweto Wildcard and Floor Nominations

The dynamics are fluid. A potential game-changer lies in Soweto, the region’s largest voting bloc with over 40 wards. Concerns that Masuku’s slate lacks representation from Soweto or Johannesburg-born leaders have sparked talk of “surprise candidates” being nominated from the conference floor. Names like deputy chair Julius Maputla and Phosane Mngqibisa are being whispered as possible compromise figures who could unite delegates and swing the result.

Why Johannesburg Matters for 2027

Johannesburg is more than just another region. It is a powerhouse of delegates and political influence. For Mokonyane, a victory for her ally Masuku would deliver control of this critical bloc, providing a launchpad to lobby Gauteng and other provinces for her deputy presidential campaign. As one source put it, “Nomvula needs the support of Gauteng for any negotiation… so she needs people like Loyiso.”

As delegates move from political reports to nominations and finally to the ballot, they are doing more than choosing local leaders. They are placing early bets on the ANC’s future kingmakers. The result in Johannesburg won’t just dictate who runs the regionit will send the first, powerful signal about who holds the momentum in the long game for control of the party itself.