Mbalula Brushes Off ‘ANC Crisis’ Talk as Party Targets 50% Comeback in 2026

The ANC says it’s wounded, not finished. But analysts say the party is fighting for its political life.

Fikile Mbalula insists the ANC is not in crisis. If anything, he’s adamant the party is gearing up for a comeback big enough to push it back above 50% in the 2026 local government elections, a threshold it hasn’t touched since its dramatic fall in 2024.

Speaking at the ANC’s National General Council (NGC) gathering at Birchwood Hotel in Ekurhuleni, the secretary-general was unwavering.

“The ANC will come back, and the ANC can get 50%,” Mbalula said. “We know we need to win big in Gauteng. We need to win big in KwaZulu-Natal. Leave the rest to the work we are going to do.”

For a party still recovering from the shock of losing its national majority for the first time since 1994 and entering a Government of National Unity (GNU) with longtime rivals like the DA, confidence is a currency the ANC can’t afford to run out of.

But not everyone agrees with Mbalula’s optimism.

A Party Fighting Its Ghosts

The ANC says it is rebuilding. Critics say it is unravelling.

Mbalula has been on a public mission to refocus the organisation, stressing discipline, unity and “doing the work on the ground.”
He even suggested the party’s troublemakers are beginning to fade away:

“There are characters who are ill-disciplined… they are disappearing because of interventions that have been made.”

Inside the conference halls, the NGC is combing through the ANC’s past performance an uncomfortable task when many of the wounds are self-inflicted: corruption scandals, collapsing municipalities, factional chaos and a growing voter base that no longer trusts promises.

Yet the organisation’s second deputy secretary-general, Maropene Ramokgopa, isn’t buying the “crisis” label either.

“The organisation cannot be in crisis because what makes the organisation are the branches,” she said. “We have been dealing with organising, looking at branch functionality.”

Ramokgopa admitted the ANC’s ongoing financial strain including staff who haven’t been paid remains a major problem.
Earlier in the week, Nehawu members representing unpaid ANC staff protested outside Birchwood, demanding answers. The party says talks continue.

Analysts: “This is a crisis, a deep one”

Political analyst Solly Rashilo, however, cut straight through the ANC’s confidence.

“The ANC is currently in a state of profound, multi-layered crisis,” he told IOL.
“Organisational decay, rampant factionalism, unresolved corruption issues and a consistent electoral decline” are dragging the party into uncharted territory.

Rashilo argues that the 2026 local elections may be the moment the ANC discovers just how far its grip has slipped.

And the threats aren’t only external.

SACP Goes Solo and MK Party Gains Ground

The South African Communist Party (SACP), historically one of the ANC’s strongest alliance partners, plans to contest the 2026 elections independently a decision analysts say could shave off a critical slice of the ANC’s left-wing support.

SACP general secretary Solly Mapaila has been openly hostile toward the GNU, especially the inclusion of the DA.

To him, it doesn’t represent black or working-class interests.

While the SACP insists it will remain in the tripartite alliance, analysts believe its independent electoral run could weaken the ANC, especially with the MK party rapidly gaining traction in KwaZulu-Natal.

Rashilo warns of a long-term “managed decline” for the ANC, where it remains the largest party but is increasingly forced to govern through fragile, messy coalitions.

“Fragmentation into multiple, competing factions remains a serious risk,” he said.

Social Media: “Confidence won’t fix load shedding”

Online reaction to Mbalula’s remarks has been sharp and sometimes jokey:

• “The ANC says no crisis. My municipality hasn’t had clean water in 5 days.”

• “They want 50% but can’t even pay their own staff.”

• “Confidence is good… service delivery is better.”

• “KZN? After MK? Good luck.”

For many South Africans, Mbalula’s optimism feels disconnected from daily lived realities, failing infrastructure, crime, persistent power instability and rising unemployment.

But for ANC loyalists, the message is simple: don’t count them out just yet.

Can the ANC Really Make a 50% Comeback?

The path exists, but it is narrow.

To reach 50%, the ANC would need to:

• Fix internal discipline and factional battles

• Resuscitate failing councils

• Regain trust in Gauteng and KZN

• Stabilise the GNU

• Stop internal financial collapse

• Counter rising competitors (MK, EFF, independent SACP)

Even supporters acknowledge it’s a mountain, not a hill.

But for a party built on struggle mythology, the fight to stay alive might become its next liberation battle,  not against apartheid, but against political irrelevance.

{Source: IOL}

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