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Why there will be no return to normal after Trump’s presidency
For months now, European leaders have behaved like people stuck in the bargaining stage of grief. Another summit. Another statement of unity. Another round of careful praise aimed across the Atlantic. Surely, they tell themselves, things will calm down soon.
But the uncomfortable truth is this. The world that existed before Donald Trump returned to power is not waiting on the other side of this presidency. It is already gone.
Across Europe, there is a growing sense that something fundamental has shifted. Not just in tone, not just in diplomacy, but in how the United States sees its place in the world and its obligations to old allies.
The slow unravelling of the transatlantic bond
Throughout 2025, the cracks widened quietly. Washington accused European countries of leaning too heavily on American military protection while failing to pull their weight. Defence spending became a regular flashpoint. Economic cooperation felt colder. Political trust thinned out.
Europe, for its part, mostly refused to panic. Many leaders clung to the idea that this was just another difficult phase. Something to manage until normal service is resumed.
That illusion shattered at the start of 2026.
Fresh confrontations over Greenland, combined with an aggressive rhetorical barrage from Washington, made it painfully clear that Europe no longer held any real leverage. The usual tools of diplomacy simply stopped working.
This is not chaos. It is a strategy
A popular explanation is that Trump is unpredictable, erratic, or uninterested in analysis. It is comforting, and it is wrong.
Trump did not rise to power in a vacuum, nor has he stayed there by accident. He represents a powerful coalition inside the United States. This includes conservative political forces, parts of big tech, the defence industry, and economic thinkers who believe the old model of globalisation has failed America.
From this perspective, what looks like chaos is actually coherence.
The post-Cold War system, where the US acted as the centre of a stable alliance network, no longer serves their interests. So they are dismantling it, piece by piece, from the top down.
Why Europe keeps misreading the moment
European leaders keep acting as if the rules are still the same. That relationships can be repaired with enough patience, flattery, or symbolic gestures.
It is a dangerous miscalculation.
Within Trump’s worldview, weakening NATO and sidelining the European Union makes sense. A fractured Europe is easier to manage. It also opens the door to partnerships with nationalist leaders who share his instincts rather than with institutions in Brussels.
Warnings about this shift were issued openly in the past. They were largely dismissed as rhetorical excess. Now they are the policy.
A new kind of American ambition
Despite what some supporters believe, this is not isolationism. Trump is not withdrawing from the world. He is reshaping it.
His approach resembles a return to overt power politics. Territory, influence, and dominance matter more than multilateral norms. Interventions in places like Venezuela or confrontations involving Iran fit this pattern. They are not contradictions. They are expressions of a more openly nationalist and neocolonial outlook.
Viewed through this lens, the pieces fall into place.
Who adapts and who gets left behind
Ironically, rivals like China and Russia may find this version of America easier to deal with. The rules are blunt but clear.
Europe is in a far more precarious position. Many governments are still waiting for a post-Trump restoration. A belief that a future US administration will quietly reverse everything and rebuild the old order.
That hope is likely misplaced.
Even if political power shifts again in Washington, the global landscape has already changed. NATO will not simply snap back into its old form. The US and Europe will not return to their previous relationship. At best, there will be surface-level adjustments and softer language.
The deeper transformation is already locked in.
A cautionary historical echo
History offers a sobering parallel. In the 1980s, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev launched radical reforms because he believed the system was heading toward collapse. He had elite support. He moved aggressively. The result was not renewal but disintegration.
There is no guarantee the United States will follow the same path. But the risk is real. When revolutions are driven from the top, the consequences are rarely neat or controllable.
For Europe, the lesson is simple and urgent. Waiting this out is no longer a strategy. The world after Trump is already here.
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Source: IOL
Featured Image: NBC News
