Business

SA’s Processed Chicken Crisis: Brazil Poultry Ban Sparks Fears of Soaring Prices and Hunger

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3 months ago

May 29, 2025

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South Africa’s food supply chain is under mounting pressure following a government decision to ban poultry imports from Brazil — a key supplier of mechanically deboned meat (MDM) and chicken offal used in popular processed foods like polony, Russians, and viennas.

The Department of Agriculture introduced the ban on May 15 in response to an avian flu outbreak in Brazil. While the health-focused move may be justified, experts and industry players are warning that the ripple effects could be severe — especially for low-income families and school feeding schemes.

“We’re staring at a shortage of 400 million meals per month. That’s seven meals per person across South Africa,” said Georg Southey, manager at Merlog Foods. “Some food categories have only 2.5 weeks of reserves left.”

Processed Protein in Peril

MDM is the base ingredient for many affordable meats found in school lunches and supermarket shelves. With two weeks of imports already lost and millions more meals at risk every week, the industry is calling for urgent government action.

Arnold Prinsloo, CEO of meat producer Eskort, said their production lines could grind to a halt by the end of June if Brazilian supplies remain restricted. He explained that local producers simply don’t have the capacity to fill the gap.

“Vulnerable households rely heavily on low-cost protein like polony,” Prinsloo said. “If supply stops, the knock-on effects on hunger and malnutrition could be disastrous.”

Calls for a More Targeted Ban

Industry bodies are urging the Department of Agriculture to adopt a more nuanced approach — similar to that of Namibia and Mozambique — by limiting the ban to poultry from Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul, the only region currently affected by bird flu.

“If imports from unaffected regions are allowed, we could avert a crisis,” Prinsloo added.

Split Views Within the Industry

Not everyone agrees on the extent of the fallout. Izaak Breitenbach of the South African Poultry Association played down fears of a chicken meat shortage, noting that Brazil’s share in imported whole chicken meat has declined. However, he acknowledged that the country heavily relies on Brazil for MDM, which isn’t produced in significant quantities locally.

“There will be a constraint in MDM supply, but chicken meat as a whole is unlikely to run out,” Breitenbach said, adding that countries like Thailand could help plug the gap.

Analysts Sound the Alarm

Investment analyst Anthony Clark pointed out that Brazil holds an 80% market share in South Africa’s poultry imports, particularly for MDM and offal like carcasses and gizzards. Even if some products like heat-treated MDM are still permitted, domestic production alone won’t meet demand.

“If the exemption for heat-treated MDM stays in place, we might avoid a total meltdown. But we still need urgent planning,” Clark said.

Balancing Health and Hunger

Civil society voices, like Mervyn Abrahams of the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group, acknowledge the importance of protecting public health but stress the need for transparent price controls to avoid opportunistic increases.

“Chicken is the most affordable protein for many South Africans. The ban must not lead to price gouging,” Abrahams said.

As winter tightens its grip and millions depend on affordable protein to get through the season, calls are growing louder for a balanced solution — one that safeguards both public health and household hunger levels.