Business

Eskom Promises an End to Load Shedding, but Load Reduction Still Lingers

Published

8 hours ago

September 5, 2025

Chiraag

end of load shedding South Africa, Eskom summer outlook 2025, load reduction communities, illegal electricity connections South Africa, Eskom smart meters rollout, Eskom Koeberg Unit 1, Joburg ETC

From blackouts to cautious optimism

For the first time in years, South Africans may be heading into summer without the looming dread of rolling blackouts. Eskom has announced that its Summer Outlook for September 2025 to March 2026 shows no load shedding on the horizon.

This follows a winter that was relatively uneventful by recent standards. Between April and August, the country experienced just 26 hours of load shedding, spread over four evenings. Eskom delivered a stable power supply 97% of the time, a remarkable improvement compared with recent winters, where outages dominated everyday life.

The numbers behind the recovery

Behind the scenes, a series of changes in Eskom’s generation fleet have shifted the balance. Around 7,800 MW of capacity has been restored since 2023 thanks to long-term repairs and new builds, including Medupi Unit 4 and Kusile Unit 6. Planned maintenance has also eased, creating room for a smoother system going into summer.

The Energy Availability Factor (EAF), a key performance measure, has climbed from 55% in 2023 to over 60% this year, with some months hitting 66%. Diesel spending has been halved compared with last year, easing the financial strain on the utility. And more power is set to return in September when Koeberg Unit 1 comes back online, adding another 930 MW.

Why “load reduction” is the new buzzword

Eskom’s challenges, however, have not disappeared. While national load shedding seems to be under control, many communities are now dealing with “load reduction.”

Unlike scheduled blackouts, load reduction happens locally when parts of the grid buckle under pressure from illegal connections or overloaded systems. It often strikes in townships or informal settlements where electricity theft is rife and infrastructure is stretched thin.

In practice, this means that while the country as a whole may celebrate the end of load shedding, specific communities could still experience sudden cut-offs.

Fighting theft and overloading

Eskom says it wants to cut load reduction incidents by 20% by March 2026, with the longer-term aim of phasing it out completely within two years. That plan rests heavily on tackling electricity theft, disconnecting over 600,000 illegal connections, and installing smart meters.

Already, nearly 900,000 of the planned 7.2 million smart meters have been deployed, designed to better manage demand and limit tampering. The utility is also registering more households for free basic electricity, which could reduce the incentive for illegal hookups.

The bigger picture

For many South Africans, the end of load shedding has long felt like an impossible promise. Now, with numbers improving, Eskom has shifted the national conversation. But as long as load reduction persists in certain communities, the energy crisis is not truly over.

The coming summer may indeed mark the beginning of the end for load shedding. Yet the real test lies in whether Eskom can translate this progress into long-term stability and fairness, ensuring that the relief is felt equally across the country.