Business
February fuel price drop could finally ease pressure on South African motorists
For the first time in a while, filling up the tank might not feel like a punishment. Early indicators suggest February 2026 could deliver a noticeable fuel price cut across petrol, diesel, and illuminating paraffin, offering a rare moment of relief for South African households and businesses alike.
Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund points to a combination of global and local factors finally lining up in motorists’ favour. A stronger rand and softer international oil prices are doing most of the heavy lifting, and the numbers already look encouraging.
Why prices are heading down
Two key forces are driving the expected drop. The rand has held firm in the early weeks of 2026, trading around R16.37 to the dollar. That matters because fuel is priced internationally in dollars, and a stronger local currency reduces the cost of imports.
At the same time, global oil prices have cooled overall, even though headlines have been dominated by geopolitical tension. While unrest in Iran, uncertainty in Venezuela, and pressure in the Black Sea briefly pushed crude prices higher, global supply remains strong enough to keep prices within a relatively narrow range.
This balance has translated into positive fuel recoveries locally, with petrol showing consistent over-recoveries of around 77 to 82 cents per litre. Diesel has performed even better, sitting between 92 cents and just over R1 per litre in over-recovery territory.
What the numbers look like so far
Based on mid-month projections, these are the expected changes for February:
Petrol 93 is set to drop by about 78 cents per litre.
Petrol 95 could fall by roughly 82 cents per litre.
Diesel 0.05 percent wholesale is expected to decrease by around 93 cents per litre.
Diesel 0.005 percent wholesale may come down by about R1.02 per litre.
Illuminating paraffin is projected to decrease by approximately 81 cents per litre.
In practical terms, inland 95 petrol could move from around R20.75 per litre in January to just under R19.95 in February. Coastal prices are expected to be even lower, with 95 petrol hovering close to R19.10 per litre.
Diesel users, especially in logistics and agriculture, stand to gain the most. Wholesale inland diesel could drop to around R17.50 per litre, easing pressure on transport costs that eventually filter through to food and goods prices.
Image 1: Business Tech
A cautious note before celebrating
It is important to keep expectations realistic. The Central Energy Fund’s daily snapshots are a strong guide, but they are not the final word. Prices can still shift before month-end, and the Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only confirms official adjustments a few days before implementation.
That said, the direction of travel is clear. Even if the final figures change slightly, February is shaping up to be a month of downward movement rather than another shock increase.
Image 2: Business Tech
Image 3: Business Tech
Why this matters on the ground
Fuel prices touch almost every part of daily life in South Africa. From taxi fares and school runs to food prices and small business costs, even a modest cut can make a real difference. On social media, motorists have already begun expressing cautious optimism, with many hoping this signals a more stable period after years of sharp swings.
For households stretched by rising living costs and for businesses trying to plan ahead, a fuel price reprieve offers breathing room. It may not solve everything, but it is a reminder that global markets do occasionally throw local consumers a lifeline.
If current trends hold, February could be one of those rare months where the pump price actually feels like good news.
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Source: Business Tech
Featured Image: PE Express
