Business
South Africa’s Fuel Prices: Petrol Struggles While Diesel Finds Relief
Petrol in the red
The first fuel recovery figures for September have not brought much cheer for South African motorists. According to data from the Central Energy Fund, petrol is starting the month in negative territory. Early indicators point to a likely increase of between 19 and 26 cents per litre when October’s prices are announced.
This under-recovery has been driven largely by global product prices, which remain sensitive to oil movements. Brent crude is hovering just under 67 US dollars a barrel, slightly higher than last month. While that increase seems small, it has been enough to tip recoveries into the red for petrol.
Diesel paints a better picture
The story looks different for diesel. Both 0.05% and 0.005% wholesale grades are showing an over-recovery of around 22 cents per litre. If this holds, October could bring some relief for transport operators and logistics businesses that rely heavily on diesel. Illuminating paraffin is also showing a projected decrease of 14 cents per litre.
Oil and OPEC in the spotlight
Looking ahead, much will depend on the oil market. Analysts point out that oversupply and muted demand are keeping oil prices in check. OPEC+ is due to meet on 7 September to decide whether to approve another supply hike after already restarting millions of barrels per day in recent months.
The oil market has been volatile this year, with Brent crude losing around 11% in value. A further dip in oil could work in favour of South African fuel prices, although the balance remains fragile.
The rand factor
The second piece of the fuel price puzzle is the rand. At the end of this week, the local currency traded at around R17.70 to the dollar, recovering some of the ground it lost earlier. Reserve Bank data showing improved foreign reserves gave the rand a short-term boost, but its volatility remains a risk.
Political sentiment is also weighing on the currency. Ipsos polling suggests that public optimism, which grew after the Government of National Unity was formed in 2024, is beginning to fade as coalition disagreements emerge. Any sudden dip towards R18 to the dollar could undo the current recovery and push petrol prices even higher.
What this means for motorists
For now, petrol is on track for a modest increase in October, while diesel drivers may enjoy a cut. But with more than three weeks still to go in September, much can change. Oil prices, OPEC decisions, and the rand’s direction will determine whether the current trajectory holds.
Motorists should prepare for the possibility of higher petrol costs at the start of October, even if diesel and paraffin bring some relief. As always, the monthly price adjustment will depend on how these global and local factors play out in the weeks ahead.
Also read: South Africa’s Next Export: 10 Million Young Minds Ready for the World
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Source: Business Tech
Featured Image: News24
