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Motorists Get a Break as Fuel Prices Point to Another Drop in February
Another Petrol Price Win Could Be Around the Corner
For South African motorists, the new year is starting with a rare feeling at the pumps. Relief. And if early fuel indicators are anything to go by, February could bring even more good news.
Preliminary figures from the Central Energy Fund show that fuel price recoveries are building fast. If global and local conditions hold steady, another sizeable petrol and diesel price cut could be on the cards next month.
It comes just days after January already delivered a noticeable drop, giving drivers some breathing room after years of relentless increases.
What the Early Numbers Are Saying
By the end of the first week of January, petrol prices were already sitting on an over-recovery of around R1.20 per litre. Diesel looked even better, with recoveries nearing R1.75 per litre.
At this stage, estimated recoveries show:
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Petrol 93 tracking a possible decrease of about R1.09 per litre
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Petrol 95 pointing to a drop of roughly R1.15 per litre
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Diesel 0.05 percent wholesale down by around R1.49 per litre
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Diesel 0.005 percent wholesale down by about R1.63 per litre
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Illuminating paraffin showing a potential cut of roughly R1.28 per litre
It is still early days. Fuel prices are only officially confirmed closer to month end, and markets can turn quickly. But the starting position is unusually strong.
Why Prices Are Tilting in Motorists’ Favour
Two key forces are working together right now. Oil prices and the rand.
Global oil prices have been under pressure as supply expectations grow for 2026. Increased output and higher Venezuelan oil flows have weighed on prices, even as geopolitical tensions briefly pushed crude above 62 dollars a barrel. Analysts still expect oversupply to dominate the months ahead, with forecasts suggesting oil could drift into the 50 dollar range.
Locally, the rand has been the quiet hero. After ending 2025 nearly 13 percent stronger against the US dollar, it has continued its winning streak into early 2026. This currency strength alone is currently contributing around 21 cents per litre to the fuel over-recovery.
Despite South Africa’s ongoing challenges, such as slow growth and high unemployment, global investors have shown renewed appetite for emerging markets. South Africa’s exposure to precious metals and its relatively calmer political outlook compared to peers heading into elections have helped support the currency.
Image 1: Business Tech
January’s Cut Was Just the Beginning
Motorists already felt the impact from Wednesday, 7 January. Petrol prices dropped by between 62 and 66 cents per litre, while diesel prices fell by as much as R1.50 per litre in some categories.
On social media, many drivers described it as a rare moment of financial relief. Taxi operators and delivery drivers, who are often hit hardest by fuel hikes, welcomed the breather. Some motorists even joked that they were filling up “just because it finally feels good to do so.”
The Big Caveat Everyone Should Remember
There are still several weeks to go before February’s fuel price announcement. Oil markets remain sensitive to global politics, and currency sentiment can shift quickly.
For the current trend to reverse, oil prices would need to spike sharply, or the rand would have to weaken significantly. At the moment, neither scenario appears likely.
If conditions remain as they are, February could deliver one of the most meaningful fuel price cuts South Africans have seen in years. A small but welcome boost as households and businesses try to regain their footing in 2026.
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Source: Business Tech
Featured Image: Htxt
