Petrol Price Set to Rise in July Here’s What South Africans Can Expect

Just when we were starting to breathe a little easier at the pumps, it looks like that relief could be short-lived. If you were hoping July would bring another round of fuel price cuts, mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) suggests we may be in for a slight bump instead.

What Changed?

Earlier this month, fuel prices dropped — giving motorists across South Africa a bit of welcome financial breathing room. But that outlook changed fast following a sharp geopolitical twist: an Israeli military strike on Iran late last week sent global oil markets into a tailspin, with Brent Crude climbing again.

As of 16 June, brent crude was sitting at $74.61 a barrel, and the rand was trading at R17.83 to the dollar. Those two figures are key because they’re the main drivers of South Africa’s fuel price.

Here’s What Motorists Might Pay in July

According to current CEF data, if the market holds steady (which is a big ‘if’ given current volatility), we’re looking at:

• Petrol 93: Increase of 6 cents per litre

• Petrol 95: Increase of 9 cents per litre

• Diesel 0.05%: Increase of 10 cents per litre

• Diesel 0.005%: Increase of 12 cents per litre

• Illuminating paraffin: Increase of 1 cent per litre

These aren’t dramatic hikes, but they’re still enough to eat into the savings motorists enjoyed earlier in June.

What’s Driving the Fuel Forecast?

South Africa’s fuel pricing model hinges on two core variables:

1. The international price of petroleum products, which tracks the brent crude oil price

2. The rand/dollar exchange rate, which affects the cost of importing refined fuels

So when conflict flares in oil-producing regions or the rand weakens, local fuel prices almost always follow suit.

Why It Matters for Everyday South Africans

A few cents per litre might not seem like a lot on paper, but for many Joburgers and South Africans trying to stretch every rand, it adds up. From daily commutes to grocery deliveries and public transport fares, even small changes at the pump ripple across the economy.

Social media sentiment reflects a sense of fatigue. After months of yo-yoing prices, many South Africans have taken to X and Facebook to voice frustration. One user summed it up: “It’s like we’re being punished every time we start planning a road trip.”

So, What Happens Next?

We’ll get confirmation of the final petrol and diesel prices at the start of next month, with adjustments set to kick in at midnight on Tuesday, 1 July 2025.

Until then, best to keep the tank topped up and take it easy on the accelerator

Source:The South African

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