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Inflation Is Easing in South Africa, But Your Grocery Bill Has Other Plans
A softer inflation print that caught everyone off guard
For once, the monthly inflation figures delivered a small but welcome surprise. South Africa’s annual consumer price inflation eased to 3.5 percent in November, down slightly from October. It was a modest move, but enough to wrong-foot most economists who had expected inflation to hold steady.
On paper, this looks like good news for households already stretched by years of rising costs. Inflation cooled across several everyday categories, including transport and communication, suggesting that some pressure points in the economy are finally loosening.
But as many South Africans will tell you, inflation only really makes sense when you feel it in your wallet. And that is where the optimism starts to fade.
Cheaper fuel and cars bring some breathing room
One of the biggest contributors to the lower headline number came from transport costs. Fuel prices dropped sharply between October and November, easing the annual fuel inflation rate to almost flat territory.
Vehicle prices also played a role. Used cars are now cheaper than they were a year ago, continuing a steady decline that has been in place since late winter. For anyone scanning online listings or negotiating at a dealership, this is the first real sign of relief in more than a decade. New vehicles, however, continue to creep higher, particularly bakkies, which remain in strong demand.
In everyday terms, this means commuting costs and some big-ticket purchases are no longer racing ahead at the pace we have grown used to.
The real pain is playing out at the butcher
The problem is that inflation does not hit all categories equally. While transport and recreation cooled, food prices have started climbing again, and the culprit is clear.
Food and nonalcoholic beverage inflation rose to 4.4 percent in November, its first increase in four months. Meat prices are doing most of the damage, jumping more than 12 percent year on year. This is the sharpest increase seen since early 2018.
Beef has been under pressure for months, but it is no longer alone. Pork, lamb, and processed meats such as sausages are now also climbing fast. Shoppers across Joburg have taken to social media to complain about shrinking portions, cancelled braais, and the quiet return of meat-free Mondays.
The driving force behind this surge is the ongoing foot and mouth disease outbreak, which began earlier this year and spread from major feedlots to most provinces. Even Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen has acknowledged that containment efforts have struggled, prompting plans for a nationwide vaccination drive.
Why some food prices are still holding the line
There is one saving grace in the food basket. Not everything is getting more expensive.
Dairy and eggs have been quietly defying the trend. Milk prices remain lower than they were a year ago, and eggs have been in negative territory since late 2024. Cereals have also eased, with staples like maize meal, rice, and white bread recording monthly price drops.
Good weather and healthy crop yields are doing their part here, cushioning households from what could have been an even harsher food inflation shock. Even oils and fats, despite higher annual inflation, saw margarine prices slip slightly during the month.
What this means for households heading into 2026
From a policy perspective, the November inflation print gives decision makers a bit of breathing room. Lower fuel inflation is expected to reverse slightly in December but could stabilise again early in 2026, limiting longer-term damage.
For households, the picture is more complicated. Transport costs are easing, but grocery bills are becoming more unpredictable, especially for families that rely on meat as a staple protein. Analysts at Nedbank have already warned that meat-driven food inflation could linger well into the new year.
The takeaway is simple. Inflation may be cooling overall, but the cost-of-living story on the ground is uneven. You might save a bit at the pump or on a used car, only to hand it straight back at the checkout.
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Source: Business Tech
Featured Image: iStock
