South Africa’s Silent Exodus: Why Thousands More Are Leaving in 2025

A population growing in size but shrinking in parts

South Africa’s population officially hit 63.1 million in July 2025, according to the latest mid-year estimates by Stats SA. However, beneath that headline number lies a sobering truth: while the nation is growing, a specific demographic continues to shrink.

Emigration is quietly reshaping the country. The numbers suggest this trend is accelerating once again.

Emigration continues to climb, with notable shifts in one demographic

Stats SA estimates that approximately 94,898 white South Africans will have emigrated between 2021 and 2026. This marks a rise from 84,308 in the previous five-year period, despite the global disruptions caused by COVID-19.

In 2025 alone, more than 10,000 additional individuals from this group are estimated to have left the country. The cumulative total since 1985 is now estimated at over 706,000, reflecting a long-term trend shaped by a mix of social, economic, and personal factors.

Where are they going, and why?

While Stats SA does not detail destinations, common pathways include the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the Netherlands. These countries are seen as offering more economic stability, security, and predictability. Social media continues to be filled with departure lounge photos, goodbye parties, and hashtags such as #ImStaying, followed by those who are not staying.

Among many families, the reasons are layered: concerns about crime, infrastructure decline, job prospects for children, and political uncertainty. For others, it is about opportunity rather than fear, coupled with the desire to start fresh in countries with easier global mobility and stronger currencies.

A growing nation, but not for everyone

Despite the emigration spike, South Africa’s total population grew by 772,291 people from July 2024 to July 2025, an increase of 1.23%. Over half the population is female. Gauteng remains the most populous province at over 16 million, followed by KwaZulu-Natal at 12.2 million.

Closer analysis of demographic shifts reveals a different story:

• The black African population grew by 0.2%

• The coloured population increased by 0.1%

• The Indian/Asian population rose by 1.6%

• The white population declined by 0.9%, now making up just 7.1% of the national total

Stats SA notes that the white demographic is the only one showing consistent negative growth, largely due to outward migration.

Covid-19’s lingering shadow

Part of this population volatility still traces back to the pandemic. The crude death rate (CDR) peaked at 11.1 per 1,000 people in 2021, higher than the worst years of the HIV epidemic. Death rates eased in 2022 and 2023, and by 2024, the CDR had dropped to 8.7, ticking slightly up to 8.8 in 2025, close to pre-Covid norms.

Meanwhile, the population growth rate, which dropped as low as 1.06% during the pandemic, has not fully recovered, dipping from 1.33% in 2024 to 1.23% in 2025.

Hard to measure, harder to ignore

Tracking emigration is notoriously difficult. Stats SA admits that international migration data, especially departures, is underreported due to weak surveillance at land, air, and sea borders.

To get a clearer picture, Stats SA supplemented its estimates using data from the United Nations Migrant Stock Report. This report shows that over one million South Africans are currently living abroad.

Why South Africa’s migration trends matter

Ongoing emigration, particularly among skilled professionals, raises broader questions for South Africa’s long-term development. While people leave for many reasons, from personal opportunity to concerns about crime or economic uncertainty, the challenge for policymakers is retaining and attracting talent across all communities.

Migration shifts can influence areas such as tax contributions, innovation, and workforce dynamics. As Stats SA’s figures show, South Africa continues to grow overall, but it’s also evolving in ways that require thoughtful planning and inclusive policy responses.

Whether these trends stabilise or continue will depend on how the country responds with opportunities, safety, and stability for all who call it home.

Also read: These Emoji Could Get You Fired: Why South Africans Need to Think Twice Before Hitting Send

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Source: Business Tech

Featured Image: The South African