Brighter Days Ahead: Eskom Promises No Load Shedding This Winter — But Urges Caution

South Africans have reason to be cautiously optimistic this winter. Eskom’s latest outlook for winter 2025 reveals no load shedding is expected, thanks to improved generation performance and returning capacity from key power stations.

Speaking during the utility’s winter briefing, Eskom said its base case scenario predicts a stable grid, with the only load shedding so far having occurred during a single day in April. However, the utility was clear: this outlook depends on keeping unplanned outages below 13,000MW.

If breakdowns rise beyond that threshold, up to 21 days of Stage 2 load shedding could still occur. Still, this “worst-case” scenario is unlikely, Eskom said, and is a significant improvement from previous winters.

More Power on the Grid in 2025

The promising outlook is backed by hard numbers. Eskom anticipates around 2,500MW more electricity will be available this winter compared to last year. A key contributor will be Medupi Unit 4, which is expected to return to service by the end of May after being offline since an explosion in August 2021. Once fully operational, it will add 800MW to the national grid.

Also expected to support the grid are Kusile Unit 6 and Koeberg Unit 1, the latter of which should be back online by July. Combined, these developments may help Eskom avoid rotating power cuts entirely during the coldest months.

Moving from Load Shedding to Energy Security

Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa emphasized a broader shift: “We’re transitioning from ending load shedding to ensuring long-term energy security.” While setbacks remain possible, the current environment is not a return to the widespread outages of the past.

That said, the risk of load reduction still lingers—especially in communities where infrastructure is under pressure due to illegal connections and excessive use. Eskom confirmed it is working with law enforcement to combat electricity theft and is accelerating the rollout of smart meters to better manage demand.

Local Challenges Still a Concern

Although the national supply picture looks better, distribution remains a weak link, particularly in parts of Gauteng, Mpumalanga, and Limpopo. In many areas, Eskom has the power but cannot deliver it safely to homes due to damaged or overloaded infrastructure.

“Load reduction is a temporary measure, but it’s necessary when local demand exceeds safe levels,” Eskom explained. The utility urged communities, municipalities, and national government to partner in protecting infrastructure and ensuring more equitable access to electricity.

Eskom’s 2025 winter forecast brings much-needed relief, but vigilance is still needed. If everything goes according to plan, South Africans can look forward to a winter with fewer blackouts and more stability—a significant step toward energy security.

{Source: BusinessTech }

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