Fewer Power Cuts Expected This Winter as Eskom Boosts Grid Reliability

South Africans can expect fewer power cuts this winter, with Eskom predicting minimal to no loadshedding in the months ahead. The utility says operational improvements and better maintenance have significantly stabilised the national grid.

According to Eskom’s Winter 2025 outlook released on Monday, no loadshedding is expected unless unplanned breakdowns exceed 13GW. Even in the worst-case scenario — where outages hit 15GW — the country would face no more than 21 days of Stage 2 loadshedding over the 153-day winter period. This marks a considerable improvement from last year’s warnings of potential Stage 5 blackouts.

“This year’s Winter Outlook prediction is built on an improvement in operational performance and overall efficiency,” said Eskom Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane.

He added that loadshedding in the 2025 financial year was the lowest in three years, with Eskom supplying electricity 96% of the time — up from just 9.9% the previous year.

Better performance, lower costs

A major factor behind the improved outlook is a 3.1GW year-on-year drop in unplanned outages, which fell from 18GW in May 2023 to 13.5GW by April 2025. Eskom also ramped up planned maintenance, now at 12.8% of total capacity, up from 12% last year.

Plant availability rose by 6.5% year-on-year, reaching 61%. Diesel consumption — previously used to prop up power supply during emergencies — was reduced by 50%, saving Eskom roughly R16.5 billion.

Key infrastructure developments included:

• The return to service of Kusile Units 2 and 3, both now running with flue gas desulphurisation systems.

• Progress on Kusile Unit 6 and Medupi Unit 4, set to add 1,600MW by September 2025.

• The successful restart of Koeberg Unit 2, which has contributed over 900MW since December 2024.

• The rollout of 880,000 smart meters to improve demand control and support small-scale renewable energy producers.

Fixing setbacks and planning ahead

Though brief loadshedding returned between January and April 2025, Marokane said Eskom had launched a “targeted plan” to address its causes and maintain discipline. A 3.6% rise in electricity sales further reflects the grid’s stability and reduced use of diesel-powered turbines.

Bheki Nxumalo, Eskom’s Group Executive for Generation, said the utility is refining its Generation Recovery Plan to focus on resolving delays in returning units to service.

“We are using a data-led approach to understand these delays and support our teams in addressing bottlenecks,” Nxumalo said.

Looking ahead, Eskom aims to introduce 5.9GW of clean energy by 2030. The utility is also advancing plans to legally separate its Generation and Distribution divisions, while exploring partnerships to help finance and deliver future energy projects.

Marokane credited employees for their commitment and thanked the National Energy Crisis Committee (NECOM) for its support.

“Eskom produced more energy in FY2025 than in the previous two years,” he said. “We remain focused on building a reliable, sustainable power system for South Africa’s future.”

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Sourced: African Insider

Picture: Action SA