Experts Warn: Load Shedding Still Looms Despite Eskom’s Winter Optimism

Despite recent assurances from Eskom and Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, South Africans may still face dark days this winter. Energy experts warn that the country’s fragile electricity grid could still plunge parts of the nation into load shedding during the colder months of 2025.

Eskom recently presented a more hopeful winter outlook, claiming that no load shedding should occur—unless unplanned outages exceed 13,000MW. Even in a worst-case scenario, the utility projects no more than 21 days of load shedding, likely not beyond Stage 2.

The return of key power units—like Medupi Unit 4, Kusile Unit 6, and Koeberg Unit 1—are expected to boost supply by 2,500MW over last year. Minister Ramokgopa, speaking at the G20 Energy Transitions Working Group in April, expressed confidence that there’s “no reason for performance to regress.”

But not everyone shares the optimism.

Professor Vally Padayachee, a former executive at both Eskom and City Power, cautioned that while progress has been made, the utility is still relying heavily on emergency diesel turbines—a clear sign that its core power fleet remains unstable.

“I believe Eskom will have to load shed this winter,” said Padayachee. “Hopefully it remains under Stage 3, but the risk remains high due to the system’s fragility.”

Grid Stability Still a Concern

The core issue remains the Energy Availability Factor (EAF), which currently hovers around 57%. Padayachee and other experts argue this is too low to guarantee uninterrupted supply, especially with unpredictable winter demands.

Professor Hartmut Winkler of the University of Johannesburg agrees. “We’re definitely in a better place than last year,” he said, “but the reality is, Eskom is still operating in crisis mode. Only about 60% of its power generation capacity is functional.”

He added that the risk of system failure remains very real. “If several breakdowns happen at once, Eskom won’t be able to hold the line—and then we’ll see load shedding.”

Stage 2 blackouts were already reintroduced in April during a cold front, despite Eskom’s winter prep. Winkler believes this shows the system remains vulnerable to pressure.

The Long-Term Fix: New Energy Infrastructure

Experts agree that the real solution lies beyond coal. While efforts have been made to improve performance at ageing coal stations, time is running out.

“What we need is investment in modern, efficient energy infrastructure,” said Winkler. “Solar energy is the most viable short- to medium-term solution, but grid limitations have slowed adoption.”

Until new generation facilities come online, it seems South Africans must prepare for at least a few more years of load shedding—no matter how promising the forecasts may seem.

Do you think Eskom will manage to keep the lights on this winter?

{Source: BusinessTech}

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