7,000 Pigs Lost, Prices Up 25%: How African Swine Fever Is Driving Up Pork Costs in SA

While South Africa battles Foot-and-Mouth Disease in cattle, another animal disease is now driving up the price of pork.

African Swine Fever (ASF) combined with FMD outbreakshas tightened supply across the formal market, and consumers will feel the pinch.

The Numbers

South Africa slaughters roughly 72,000 pigs per week across formal and informal sectors.

The formal market has lost approximately 7,000 pigs due to the combined impact of ASF and FMD outbreaks.

Arnold Prinsloo, CEO of EskortSouth Africa’s leading antibiotic-free pork producerexplained the dynamics.

“The pork market is highly sensitive to even small supply disruptions. While this represents a relatively small percentage of total supply, even a 2% shortage can drive price increases of around 10%. This is the reality of pork’s price elasticity.”

The Price Impact

Wholesale pork prices have already moved significantly:

• From: R32 per kilogram

• To: R40 per kilogram

That’s a 25% increaseand further rises are expected as the effects work through the supply chain.

Until recently, the industry had surplus stock that served as a buffer.

“That buffer has now been depleted, and we’re seeing the same supply-and-demand dynamics that recently affected the beef industry,” Prinsloo said.

The Outbreaks

Dranca Neo Phalatse, Postgraduate Coordinator at the University of Pretoria’s Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, outlined the challenge.

“African Swine Fever continues to pose a major challenge to the pork industry in South Africa and globally. The disease is highly contagious among pigs and usually results in high mortality rates, forcing farmers to cull infected and exposed animals to control outbreaks.”

Outbreaks have been reported in:

• Free State

• North West

• KwaZulu-Natal

• North-east of Pretoria

The Safety Message

The South African Pork Producers’ Organisation (SAPPO) has confirmed that all pork entering the market through formal channels remains safe for consumption.

ASF and FMD are animal health diseases that pose no risk to human health. Strict veterinary oversight and inspection protocols under the Meat Safety Act continue to ensure food safety.

The Eskort Factor

Eskort accounts for about 10% of South Africa’s pork marketand has had no cases of ASF or FMD among its farmers.

The company attributes this to world-class biosecurity protocols and antibiotic-free farming practices.

But Prinsloo stressed that no producer is immune to market-wide pricing pressures.

“Even though Eskort has not lost animals to these diseases, we operate in a broader market where supply and demand determine pricing. When the overall supply contracts, it affects pricing across the board.”

The Bottom Line

Seven thousand pigs lost. A 25% price increase. A depleted buffer stock. And further rises expected.

ASF doesn’t affect humansbut it’s certainly affecting their wallets.

For consumers, pork is about to get more expensive. For farmers, the battle to contain the disease continues. And for the industry, the hope is that supply can stabilise before prices rise even further.

{Source: IOL}

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