Why no single leader can rescue the ANC from its long slide

Why no single leader can rescue the ANC from its long slide

As South Africa’s ruling party searches for answers to its shrinking support base, familiar names are being floated as possible saviours. Patrice Motsepe, the billionaire businessman, and former president Thabo Mbeki have both been mentioned sometimes hopefully, sometimes nostalgically as figures who could steady the African National Congress.

But political analysts are blunt: no individual, no matter how respected or wealthy, can undo decades of decay inside the party.

The problem runs deeper than the presidency

The renewed talk comes as some ANC structures quietly test the waters for Motsepe ahead of the party’s 2027 national conference. In parallel, earlier speculation suggested Mbeki could be asked to step in and help restore the ANC’s credibility.

Experts say both ideas miss the point.

Independent researcher Dominic Maphaka argues the crisis facing the ANC is structural, not personal. In his view, corruption, incompetence and weak governance at grassroots level particularly in municipalities far removed from national leadership have hollowed out the organisation.

“The rot is simply too deep,” he says. A new face at the top, he argues, would only mask a broken system unless there is what he calls a “bottom-up cleansing” throughout the party’s ranks.

Voters have lost faith, not just patience

One of the ANC’s biggest challenges is that many voters no longer believe meaningful change is possible under its banner. Poor service delivery, failing local government and repeated corruption scandals have eroded trust, particularly among younger South Africans.

Maphaka says this reality limits Motsepe’s appeal. While widely respected in business and sport, Motsepe is closely associated with the current political establishment including President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is his brother-in-law.

For many voters still disillusioned by the unfulfilled promises of the so-called “new dawn”, that proximity signals continuity rather than reform. Motsepe, analysts argue, could potentially win internal party battles, but not necessarily the confidence of the broader electorate.

Liberation movement nostalgia no longer works

Political analyst Professor Ntsikelelo Breakfast places the ANC’s struggles in a wider context, noting that many liberation movements across Africa face similar crises once in power. Over time, systems of patronage, accumulation and institutional corruption take root.

According to Breakfast, this has badly damaged the ANC brand. He points to a direct link between poor service delivery and declining voter turnout, especially in urban areas where frustrations are most visible.

“The romanticism of the past doesn’t work anymore,” he says. While the ANC’s role in securing freedom is acknowledged, younger voters are focused on jobs, functioning services and accountability.

A crowded and uncertain succession race

If Motsepe were to run for ANC president, he would likely face competition from Deputy President Paul Mashatile, traditionally positioned as the next in line. Other names regularly mentioned include Nomvula Mokonyane, Fikile Mbalula, Panyaza Lesufi and Oscar Mabuyane.

Yet analysts stress that whoever emerges from this contest will inherit the same deep-seated problems.

Motsepe, they add, may even risk damaging his own reputation by entering what Breakfast describes as the “rough game of politics”, given that his success and influence extend far beyond party structures.

The hard truth for the ANC

The message from analysts is uncomfortable but clear: the ANC’s decline cannot be reversed by parachuting in a respected figurehead. Without serious internal reform, accountability at local level and a break from entrenched corruption, leadership changes will amount to little more than cosmetic fixes.

For a party that once defined South Africa’s political future, the challenge now is whether it can reinvent itself or whether its decline has already become irreversible.