A Welcome New Year Gift: Fuel Prices Set to Plunge to Four-Year Low

For South African motorists, the first week of 2026 is bringing a significant financial reprieve. Get ready for the cheapest fuel prices in nearly four years, as a favourable combination of a stronger rand and lower global oil costs is set to trigger a substantial drop at the pumps this Wednesday.

Based on unaudited month-end data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), the decreases are substantial:

• Petrol 95 Unleaded: Expected to fall by 66 cents per litre

• Petrol 93 Unleaded: Expected to fall by 62 cents per litre

• Diesel 50ppm: A major cut of R1.49 per litre

• Diesel 500ppm: A cut of R1.36 per litre

What You’ll Likely Pay at the Pump

If these projections hold, a litre of 95 Unleaded will cost around R19.92 at the coast, breaking below the psychological R20 barrier for the first time since February 2022. Inland motorists can expect to pay approximately R20.75.

The drop for diesel is even more dramatic. The wholesale price of 50ppm diesel is projected to fall to around R17.77 at the coast and R18.53 inland, offering critical relief to the agricultural and logistics sectors.

These are projections; the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy will confirm the final adjustments early this week.

Why the Sudden Relief?

Two powerful economic forces have aligned:

1. A Resurgent Rand: The local currency has strengthened remarkably, trading around R16.49/USD in early January compared to R17.40 at the start of December. A stronger rand directly cuts the cost of importing fuel.

2. A Well-Supplied Oil Market: International Brent Crude oil prices have receded to around $60 per barrel, pressured by ample global supply that is outpacing demand, particularly from major economies like China. Analysts describe the market as “oversupplied,” pushing prices toward multi-year lows.

A Note of Caution

While this is unequivocally good news for strained household and business budgets, the relief comes with a geopolitical caveat. The recent U.S. military action in Venezuela could introduce new volatility and potentially reverse the downward trend in oil prices later in the year.

For now, however, the message is clear: fill up after Wednesday. The journey into 2026 is starting with a rare and welcome drop in one of the country’s most significant monthly expenses.