Diesel Relief On The Horizon As South Africans Hope For A January Price Drop

South African diesel drivers may finally be heading into the new year with something to smile about. After months of feeling the pinch at the pumps, early projections suggest that diesel prices could fall sharply in the first week of January 2026. For many motorists who rely on diesel for work, travel and family trips, this feels like long-overdue festive season cheer.

Why Diesel Drivers Are Set For A Breather

According to the Central Energy Fund’s latest daily tracking, diesel is expected to drop by between 76 and 80 cents per litre. This comes after a bruising December increase that saw diesel rise by up to 82 cents in some grades.

Petrol users, however, may not share the same excitement. Current forecasts show no expected change for 93 octane and only a small 2-cent decrease for 95. It is a reminder of just how unpredictable the fuel landscape in South Africa can be, especially heading into a busy travel period.

The CEF’s projections show the following early outlook:

• Petrol 93: No change

• Petrol 95: Decrease of 2 cents

• Diesel 0.05 percent: Decrease of 76 cents

• Diesel 0.005 percent: Decrease of 80 cents

• Illuminating paraffin: Decrease of 51 cents

For households that rely on paraffin for heating or cooking, this drop offers meaningful relief at a time when holiday spending is already stretched.

What’s Behind The Expected Drop?

Fuel pricing in South Africa relies heavily on two key forces: international oil prices and the rand’s performance against the US dollar.

Right now, Brent crude is sitting at around 61.80 dollars a barrel. That’s a relatively cushioned level compared to the roller-coaster shifts seen earlier in the year. At the same time, the rand is trading at R16.93 to the dollar, giving the local market a bit more breathing space.

These two factors combined have created the perfect window for a potential diesel correction, even if the market remains sensitive to global tensions and currency volatility.

How Motorists Are Reacting

On social media, the reaction from diesel drivers has been a mix of relief and scepticism. Many say the projected drop is welcome, but long overdue. One X user joked, “Diesel finally giving us a festive gift that doesn’t come wrapped in disappointment.” Another said they’re “holding thumbs until the Department signs off” because projections don’t always reflect the final outcome.

Petrol drivers, on the other hand, have been quick to express their frustration. “Two cents? That’s not a drop, that’s a rounding error,” one commenter wrote.

What Happens Next?

The final fuel prices will be confirmed later in December and will officially take effect at midnight on Tuesday, 6 January 2026. Until then, projections may shift as the rand and global oil markets continue to move.

For now, though, diesel users can enjoy a sense of optimism heading into the new year. After a tough run of increases, even a temporary drop offers some much-needed breathing room.

Current Fuel Prices For December 2025

To understand the potential impact of the projected decrease, here’s where prices currently stand:

Inland:

• Petrol 93: R21.26

• Petrol 95: R21.41

• Diesel 0.05 percent: R19.78

• Diesel 0.005 percent: R20.02

• Illuminating Paraffin: R13.72

Coastal:

• Petrol 93: R20.47

• Petrol 95: R20.58

• Diesel 0.05 percent: R18.95

• Diesel 0.005 percent: R19.26

• Illuminating Paraffin: R12.71

With diesel possibly set to fall by up to 80 cents, South Africans could start 2026 with slightly lighter fuel bills, helping ease the financial load of back-to-work and back-to-school costs.

{Source:The South African}

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