The Great Eskom Data Debate: A Mirage or a Miracle at Year-End?

Just as South Africans were breathing a sigh of relief over a loadshedding-free festive season, a new storm has eruptednot over megawatts, but over spreadsheets. A sharp public clash between Eskom Chairman Mteto Nyati and renowned energy analyst Chris Yelland has cast a spotlight on the power utility’s year-end performance numbers, raising a critical question: is the remarkable improvement real, or is it statistical sleight of hand?

The controversy centres on Eskom’s weekly data for the final week of 2025. The figures show a startling leap: the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) jumped from 66% to over 74%, while unplanned breakdowns (UCLF) plunged from roughly 23% to 16%. Compared to the same week in 2024, the EAF was 34% higher.

To Yelland, this sudden, “atypical” spike is suspicious. “One cannot but suspect that activities are being done or not done in order to present a high EAF by the end of 2025,” he stated, noting the data point is radically out of line with trends from previous years.

Nyati’s Furious Rebuttal

Eskom’s chairman did not mince words in response. On social media, Mteto Nyati branded Yelland’s questioning “irresponsible” and designed to create doubt. “Eskom is required to publish operational data as part of its license obligations. Their data is verified by external auditors. Why then jippo EAF numbers and risk everything? And for what purpose?” he retorted.

Yelland, for his part, clarified he was not making an allegation but “scratching his head.” He pointed to Eskom’s own history, stating, “I have had sufficient experience… to know as a fact that undue pressure has been exerted on the System Operator in the past,” and that data has been manipulated before.

Eskom’s Explanation: Planned Strategy, Not Magic

Eskom’s official response to the scrutiny points to strategic planning, not manipulation. The utility states that improved fleet reliability, a result of its disciplined Generation Recovery Plan, allowed it to reduce festive season maintenance without jeopardising future stabilitya flexibility it lacked in previous crisis years.

“The combination of low holiday demand and high plant reliability even enabled Eskom to place a significant number of coal units into cold reserve, a scenario unimaginable in previous years,” the utility explained.

However, Eskom did not directly answer a key question: which specific generating units came back online to cause the dramatic Week 52 jump.

A Battle of Narratives

This debate is more than academic. It strikes at the heart of public trust. For citizens and investors, reliable data is crucial to believe in the sustainability of the loadshedding reprieve. Yelland’s skepticism reflects a weary public’s memory of past obfuscations, while Nyati’s defence underscores the board’s stake in the credibility of its turnaround narrative.

As 2026 begins, the lights are on, but the dispute illuminates a deeper tension: celebrating hard-won operational gains while maintaining rigorous, independent scrutiny of the numbers that define them. The truth, as always, likely lies somewhere between a miracle and a mirage, waiting to be proven in the relentless demand of the coming months.

{Source: Mybroadband}

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