Eskom on the Edge: South Africa Inches Closer to Winter Load-Shedding

South Africans brace for winter blackouts as Eskom stumbles on maintenance and faces record breakdowns

It’s winter in Mzansi and while you’re pulling out your blankets and kettles, Eskom is once again teetering on the brink of plunging the country into darkness. Despite promises of a “different winter,” the latest numbers tell a familiar and troubling story: Eskom’s fleet is breaking down at levels that suggest load-shedding is once again lurking just around the corner.

Breakdowns Skyrocket as Eskom’s Energy Availability Drops

According to Eskom’s system status report for the second week of June (Week 24), the Energy Availability Factor (EAF)—the key measure of how much of Eskom’s fleet is actually working—averaged 60.47%. That’s a slight improvement from early May’s dismal 57.19%, but it’s still worse than the 63.10% recorded at the same time in 2024.

Worryingly, the unplanned capacity loss factor (UCLF) a measure of surprise breakdowns has climbed to 30.73%. That’s six full percentage points worse than a year ago, and it’s no longer a blip. Eskom’s own data shows that this is the worst monthly average for unplanned outages in the last 12 months.

Delays at Medupi Add to the Pressure

Part of the reason Eskom is struggling to keep its head above water is the continued delay in bringing key units back online. One glaring example is Medupi Unit 4, which has been offline since August 2021 due to a catastrophic explosion. Eskom had promised to return the 800MW unit to service by mid-2025, but that deadline is now just days away—and Eskom has gone quiet. Radio silence.

This delay, coupled with several other planned maintenance projects running late, has kept 1,800MW of generating capacity out of the system—at a time when every megawatt counts.

Eskom’s ‘Improvement’ Comes with a Warning Sign

Yes, EAF did improve slightly. But here’s the catch: it wasn’t because more plants are running better—it’s because Eskom slashed its planned maintenance. The planned capacity loss factor (PCLF) dropped from 14.28% in early May to 8.31% by mid-June, the lowest for 2025 so far. That strategy—essentially patching holes while hoping nothing else falls apart might buy time, but it also increases long-term risk.

The reality is simple: Eskom is sacrificing future stability to keep the lights on today.

Blackout Risk Crosses the Red Line

According to Eskom’s own winter plan, load-shedding would only be needed if unplanned outages exceeded 13,000MW. But that threshold has already been crossed. For over half of the week from 11 to 17 June, Eskom reported UCLF and OCLF outages topping 14,800MW. In fact, for 34% of that time, breakdowns shot past 15,200MW—deep into stage 2 territory.

So Why Haven’t We Hit Load-Shedding Yet?

The irony? We’ve been saved—not by Eskom’s performance—but by you. Well, by everyone in South Africa using less power. In Week 25 of 2025, Eskom expects demand to peak at just over 30,000MW, more than 1,200MW less than this time last year. That demand dip is roughly the size of an entire stage of load-shedding.

Lower industrial output, tighter energy usage, and higher household efficiency might be easing the load—for now.

Public Mood: Grimly Familiar

On social media, the mood is a mix of exhaustion and déjà vu. “Winter comes, Eskom stumbles, and we all sit in the dark—rinse and repeat,” wrote one X user from Gauteng. Memes have resurfaced showing people cooking dinner by candlelight with the caption, “#LoadsheddingSeason5: The Sequel Nobody Asked For.”

Others are calling for more accountability, questioning why long-promised repairs like Medupi Unit 4 are still delayed.

A Dangerous Balancing Act

Eskom’s winter strategy looks less like a plan and more like a high-wire act with no safety net. While the current lack of load-shedding may lull some into complacency, the numbers suggest the grid is more fragile than ever.

For now, we dodge the bullet—but South Africa’s power woes are far from over. And with colder weather still ahead, the next few weeks could make or break the country’s energy stability this winter.

Will we make it through July without blackouts? Don’t switch off just yet.

{Source: My Broad Band}

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