Floyd Shivambu’s New Party: Sharp Mind, Short Run?

Fired by Zuma, rejected by MK, and eyeing a political comeback, but analysts say Floyd Shivambu may be stepping into a crowded field with little room left for thinkers without thunder.

Brains over bravado, but is that enough?

Floyd Shivambu, once the ideological engine behind the EFF’s fiery rhetoric and recently ousted secretary-general of Jacob Zuma’s MK Party, is now plotting a new political course. But political watchers aren’t exactly lining up to buy tickets to his revolution.

While Shivambu confirmed that he intends to launch a new political party, he insists the process will be consultative, involving discussions with stakeholders before a formal announcement. On paper, that sounds considered and inclusive. On the ground, however, analysts warn it may be too cautious, or simply too late.

“He’s not Malema. He’s not Zuma,” says independent political analyst Sandile Swana. “He’s got ideas. He’s a smart strategist. But he’s not a populist. That’s what wins elections.”

Constructive dismissal or political payback?

Shivambu’s political journey took a sharp turn after Zuma booted him from the MK Party’s leadership, citing redeployment to Parliament a move that turned out to be a dead end, as Shivambu’s name was absent from the party’s final MP list.

Insiders have described the move as “constructive dismissal”, suggesting Zuma might be settling old scores. Shivambu played a pivotal role in the EFF’s campaign against state capture, during which Zuma was a central figure. His high-profile opposition during those years may have made his presence in the MK Party uncomfortable for Zuma loyalists.

Adding fuel to the fire is Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, Zuma’s daughter, who’s had a public spat with Shivambu. While her father once made her apologise, analysts now say Zuma appears to have firmly chosen blood over loyalty.

No stage, no crowd?

Independent analyst Goodenough Mashego doesn’t mince words: “There is no vacuum Floyd is going to fill.”

According to Mashego, South Africa’s current political terrain is dominated by strong personalities, not just ideologies. The EFF has Julius Malema, a master of the crowd. The MK Party has Zuma, who still commands rural loyalty and populist nostalgia. Shivambu, for all his ideological credentials, lacks the magnetism that draws masses to stadiums.

A Leninist in a centrist nation

Shivambu has always positioned himself as a leftist intellectual, deeply influenced by Marxist-Leninist thought. But South African voters, while open to progressive ideas, remain largely centrist in their economic and policy preferences.

That presents a challenge: how does a radical leftist gain traction in a nation more worried about load-shedding, food prices, and social grants than ideological purity? Worse still, foreign investors and international observers, already cautious about South Africa’s political direction, may not welcome yet another ideological wildcard.

No shortage of parties, just a shortage of magic

South Africa’s political scene is already packed, from the traditionalist pull of the IFP, to the centre-left policies of the ANC, to the burn-it-down energy of the EFF. Even new parties like Build One SA and the Patriotic Alliance have carved out niches by offering something distinct.

Shivambu’s problem, analysts say, is not credibility, it’s chemistry. He may have the knowledge and track record, but in an era dominated by headline-grabbing populists, that might not be enough.

What do South Africans say?

Reaction on social media has been muted. While some praise Shivambu for his intellectualism and clean political record, others joke that his new party might be called “EFF-Lite” or “MK Leftovers.” A user on X wrote: “We don’t need another political party, we need working electricity.”

Still, in politics, anything can happen

It’s worth remembering that South African politics has a habit of surprising everyone. Malema was once expelled from the ANC. Zuma was written off post-prison. If Shivambu can mobilise the disillusioned youth, form strategic alliances, and shed his image as a background operator, he might yet find his moment.

But for now, the analysts are unconvinced. As Swana put it, “Floyd might want to lead the country. That’s not going to happen.”

Smart doesn’t always win elections. But then again South African politics isn’t done surprising us yet.

{Source: The Citizen}

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