Floyd Shivambu’s Political Gamble: A Man on the Ledge or the Next Big Disruptor?

He was once the strategist behind South Africa’s boldest political insurgents. Now, Floyd Shivambu wants to step into the spotlight, but can he survive without a powerful brand behind him?

If South African politics has taught us anything, it’s that nothing is off the table, not even political reincarnation.

This week, Floyd Shivambu, a founding member of the EFF and, until recently, Secretary-General of Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, signaled that he might launch a new political party of his own. But in true South African political style, he’s not leaving MK. Not yet, anyway.

Déjà Vu or Dangerous Gamble?

Shivambu’s political tightrope act echoes Zuma’s 2023 playbook: announce a new direction while still officially belonging to your old political home. It worked for Zuma, who stunned the ANC and voters alike when MK surged to unexpected electoral success. It worked for Malema too, whose breakaway from the ANC birthed the EFF.

But Shivambu’s move feels less like strategic genius and more like a risky overreach.

Why? Because unlike Zuma or Malema, Shivambu has never been the face of a political movement. He’s been the architect behind the scenes, the ideological compass, the strategist. But South African politics rewards charisma, not cleverness. And Shivambu may be stepping out from the shadows only to be blinded by the spotlight.

A Party Without a People?

Political parties in South Africa are brand-name driven. The ANC is still powered by its liberation legacy. The EFF is Malema. MK is Zuma. What is Shivambu’s brand?

For many, he’s known as the policy wonk of the EFF era and the behind-the-scenes organiser in MK. But does he move crowds? Does he draw votes?

Social media suggests not. Since his announcement, Shivambu has faced a wave of criticism online, ranging from his perceived disloyalty to his controversial visit to fugitive pastor Shepherd Bushiri. Tweets mockingly call him “Floyd the Floater,” and his attempts to remain in MK while launching attacks against Zuma and Duduzile Zuma are viewed as political opportunism.

One user posted: “How do you start a party while sitting in someone else’s house? At least pack your bags first.”

A Public Fallout in the Zuma Kingdom

Much of Shivambu’s troubles stem from within MK. His feud with Duduzile Zuma, Jacob Zuma’s daughter, played out in public like a political soap opera, complete with cryptic, late-night tweets and public insults. Duduzile labeled Shivambu “the worst thing to happen to MK,” and while she later apologised, sources suggest their cold war continues behind the scenes.

In his media briefing, Shivambu lashed out at Zuma’s circle, describing MK insiders as “political scoundrels” who “take drugs and tweet at night” a not-so-subtle jab at Duduzile.

The writing is on the wall: Shivambu will be expelled from MK. If Zuma could remove loyal foot soldiers for far less, there’s little doubt Shivambu’s days are numbered.

Charm vs. Strategy: A Crucial Gap

Zuma wields tribal loyalty. Malema owns the stage with fiery speeches and emotional rhetoric. Shivambu has neither the populist flair nor the tribal anchor that fuels support at grassroots level. His attacks on the EFF as a “cult” and Zuma as “gullible” might resonate in elite circles, but they don’t play well in townships or rural strongholds where emotion drives the vote.

As one analyst put it: “You don’t build a party on spreadsheets and smart ideas. You build it on a story people can believe in.”

Funders May Be On Board, But Voters?

There’s a strong hint that moneyed backers are egging him on. Political insiders suggest Shivambu is not operating in isolation; there are whispers of private funders unhappy with the current political landscape looking for a new horse to back. But while you can buy billboards and buses, you can’t buy grassroots momentum.

The Verdict: A Man on the Ledge

Floyd Shivambu may be smart, calculating, and experienced. But he may be misreading the moment. South Africans are politically fatigued, not by lack of choice, but by politicians who seem more concerned with power games than people’s problems.

Launching a party in the shadow of two political giants, while still clinging to MK’s inner structures, makes Shivambu look indecisive at best, and untrustworthy at worst.

He says he’s biding his time. But in South African politics, the window of opportunity closes fast especially when you’re already being shown the door.

{Source: IOL}

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