The DA’s Right Flank Bleeds: Why the Freedom Front Plus is Poised to Gain in 2026

The DA’s electoral coalition is showing cracksand the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) is positioned to widen them. With the 2026 local government elections approaching, political analysts warn that disillusioned Afrikaner voters, long a core component of DA support, are increasingly looking elsewhere.

This weekend, FF+ leader Corné Mulder unveiled the party’s mayoral candidates for Tshwane: seasoned lawyer Willie Spies and veteran councillor Grandi Theunissen. The message was unmistakable: the FF+ is going after the capital with a slate designed to appeal to voters frustrated with the DA’s performance and direction.

“They form an experienced and knowledgeable team determined to restore the capital to glory,” Mulder said. Spies, he added, understands Tshwane’s challenges intimately”power outages, water crises, dilapidated infrastructure, and service delivery that is collapsing.”

The Bleeding Has Begun

Political analyst Daniel Silke put it bluntly: “There has been some bleeding away from the DA, certainly to the FF+. Both parties fish in similar ponds when it comes to the electorate.”

While the FF+ remains a small player nationally, Silke noted that even modest vote shifts could translate into additional council seats, particularly in Gauteng strongholds like Tshwane. “Any bleeding of votes away from the DA to the FF+ will raise its profile and give it more seats in selected councils.”

But the FF+ faces structural limitations. “It’s got limited sectional appeal,” Silke cautioned. In a national election, the DA’s superior resources, footprint, and messaging machineparticularly the “don’t waste your vote” argumenttend to consolidate the anti-ANC vote. The FF+ has historically benefited from protest votes in by-elections, only to see those gains erode when the stakes are higher.

Steenhuisen’s Shadow

Piet Croucamp, another political analyst, pointed to a more immediate vulnerability: the DA’s leadership and its performance in government.

“There are good reasons why the FF+ should do well in Pretoria and other areas,” Croucamp said, citing “the DA’s poor party management and the damage that leader John Steenhuisen, as minister of agriculture, is causing to the farming sectorin particular, how he deals with the foot-and-mouth disease crisis.”

Steenhuisen’s dual role as outgoing DA leader and serving agriculture minister has placed him at the centre of the FMD response, a crisis that has devastated livestock farmers and drawn sharp criticism from agricultural organisations. For Afrikaner voters with deep ties to farming communities, that failure resonates personally.

A Crowded Right Flank

The FF+ is not the only party eyeing DA defectors. ActionSA has also made inroads, particularly among urban, middle-class voters disillusioned with the DA’s internal battles and coalition compromises. The DA now faces a pincer movement: the FF+ peeling off conservative Afrikaner voters to the right, while ActionSA competes for the urban professional and former DA base.

“The DA now has the task to stop the bleed to smaller parties,” Silke observed. That task is complicated by the party’s leadership transition, internal policy disputes, and the inherent tension between coalition pragmatism and oppositional identity.

What the FF+ Needs

The FF+ mayoral candidates in Tshwane are a calculated play. Spies brings legal gravitas and name recognition; Theunissen offers local government expertise. The message is aimed squarely at voters who feel the DA has lost touch with their concernsservice delivery, safety, and the preservation of minority rights.

But the party’s ceiling remains low. As Silke put it: “In a national election, they face a much bigger campaign from the DA and they don’t have the same resources, national footprint, or organisational capacity.”

The question is whether the 2026 local elections, with their lower turnout and more localized dynamics, offer the FF+ a chance to convert dissatisfaction into seats. If the DA’s right flank continues to bleed, even small gains could reshape coalition arithmetic in key metros like Tshwane.

For the DA, the warning is clear: the voters you take for granted are the ones most likely to leave.

{Source: Citizen}

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