Petrol Price Cut Expected in August While Diesel Drivers Brace for Hike

Mixed outlook as global oil markets, tariffs and a volatile rand drive fuel prices in different directions.

South African motorists can expect a welcome petrol price cut in August 2025—if current trends hold—but diesel users won’t be so lucky. Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows a clear split in fuel price forecasts: petrol is on track for a reduction, while diesel and paraffin are climbing.

It’s good news for drivers filling up with 93 or 95 unleaded petrol, who could see prices fall by up to 24 cents per litre next month. But diesel users face a painful increase of more than 60 cents per litre, making it a tough winter for truckers and businesses.

What’s Driving the Change?

The key factors influencing these swings are international oil prices and the rand/dollar exchange rate. Global crude markets have been on a rollercoaster lately, plunging below $70 per barrel in July after June’s spike above $80, due to geopolitical turmoil.

While South African petrol prices have benefited from this softening, diesel has moved in the opposite direction, with international product prices diverging due to high demand and tighter supply.

The rand, meanwhile, has held its ground against the US dollar, sitting below R18/$. This resilience is cushioning the impact somewhat, helping petrol prices recover and diesel hikes from being worse.

Expected Fuel Price Changes – August 2025

According to CEF data as of mid-July, here’s what you could be paying next month:

Inland Prices

• 93 Petrol: R21.55 (↓ 24c)

• 95 Petrol: R21.67 (↓ 20c)

• Diesel 0.05%: R19.98 (↑ 63c)

• Diesel 0.005%: R20.03 (↑ 62c)

• Illuminating Paraffin: R13.41 (↑ 26c)

Coastal Prices

• 93 Petrol: R20.76 (↓ 24c)

• 95 Petrol: R20.84 (↓ 20c)

• Diesel 0.05%: R19.15 (↑ 63c)

• Diesel 0.005%: R19.27 (↑ 62c)

• Illuminating Paraffin: R12.40 (↑ 26c)

Note: Diesel prices are wholesale; pump prices will be higher.

Why Is Diesel More Expensive?

According to energy analysts, international diesel prices are creeping upward due to tighter refinery output and rising freight demand globally. This trend is more pronounced than in petrol markets, where supply has steadied.

Also, secondary geopolitical impacts, like possible US tariffs on Russian oil buyers, are making diesel trading riskier and more expensive. While those tariffs haven’t yet materialised, the uncertainty alone is driving prices up.

Will These Projections Hold?

These mid-month numbers are provisional. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy will confirm the final figures in the first week of August. Still, the trend is clear—petrol is easing, diesel is tightening.

Motorists should keep an eye on oil price shifts and currency moves before the final price drop or hike is announced.

In Summary:

• Petrol users are set for some relief at the pumps, potentially paying R21.55 inland for 93 Unleaded.

• Diesel drivers will likely see prices push past R20 per litre, putting more pressure on transport costs.

• Paraffin is also ticking up, affecting many lower-income households that rely on it for heating and cooking.

Outlook: More Pressure on the Horizon

With a 30% US tariff on South African exports looming on 1 August, local businesses and the wider economy are bracing for more turbulence. If those tariffs come into effect, they could further weaken the rand and disrupt fuel supply chains, leading to even more price pressure in the coming months.

So while August may bring temporary relief for some, the broader economic storm clouds are far from clearing.

{Source: BusinessTech}

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