Can Ramaphosa Avoid Zelensky’s Mistakes in High-Stakes Trump Meeting?

President Cyril Ramaphosa is set to meet with US President Donald Trump this Wednesday in what many are calling one of the most critical diplomatic moments of his presidency. South Africa’s delegation hopes to reset a strained relationship with the United States — but analysts warn that Ramaphosa must navigate carefully to avoid falling into the same political trap that embarrassed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“The stakes are high,” says Professor Anthoni van Nieuwkerk from the Thabo Mbeki School of Public and International Affairs. “This is not just about symbolic handshakes — it’s about securing long-term economic ties, trade access, and asserting South Africa’s diplomatic position.”

Can a Trade Deal Save the Relationship?

Van Nieuwkerk believes the real negotiation will happen behind the scenes before the White House photo-op. South Africa, he says, must lead with value — particularly access to rare minerals like platinum, gold, and diamonds, along with South Africa’s role as a key player in African trade.

“We have 80% of the world’s platinum, and we host 600 American companies,” he said. “We also provide a gateway to Africa through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). That’s what the US wants — market access and mineral resources.”

Learning from Zelensky’s Misstep

The professor warns against repeating mistakes made by Ukraine’s Zelensky, who was drawn into a public confrontation with Trump during a supposedly ceremonial meeting.

“Zelensky got emotional and confrontational on camera — Ramaphosa must remain composed and diplomatic,” Van Nieuwkerk said. “This meeting is not the place to push symbolic narratives or emotional appeals. It’s about strategy.”

Avoid the Mandela Card

Van Nieuwkerk also discouraged Ramaphosa’s team from relying on the legacy of Nelson Mandela to curry favor in Washington.

“That tactic may work locally, but not here,” he said. “Ramaphosa has his own reputation as a skilled negotiator. He must use it.”

Trump’s Soft Power and Musk’s Influence

Political analyst Ntsikelelo Breakfast from Nelson Mandela University says the meeting comes as the US employs “soft power” — appearing open and welcoming, while pursuing its own strategic interests.

“Trump knows there’s no white genocide in South Africa. This is more about Elon Musk’s influence and business interests, particularly his opposition to South Africa’s BEE laws,” Breakfast said.

Israel, Palestine, and the ICJ Dilemma

The elephant in the room? South Africa’s legal campaign at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Israel. Breakfast warns this could become a sticking point in US negotiations.

“America is firm on its support for Israel,” he said. “There may be indirect pressure on South Africa to soften its stance on the ICJ case — a move that would be politically controversial at home.”

No Compromise on Land or BEE

Despite mounting pressure, analysts agree that Ramaphosa is unlikely to budge on key domestic policies such as land reform and Black Economic Empowerment (BEE).

“These policies are about redressing historical injustice,” said Breakfast. “Pretoria won’t give them up for trade. But diplomacy will be tested if the US asks for flexibility.”

AfriForum: Talk About Race or Face Failure

AfriForum CEO Kallie Kriel, however, sees things differently. He believes South Africa must address “racial tensions” openly, or the talks risk failure.

“You cannot reset a relationship if you deny the problems,” he said. Kriel also warned against repatriating Afrikaners who’ve claimed asylum in the US. “They were processed legally. They should not be forced back.”

High Stakes, High Diplomacy

As the White House meeting draws closer, all eyes are on Ramaphosa. With economic pressure mounting at home and trade relations hanging in the balance, he must walk a tightrope — advancing South Africa’s interests while navigating Washington’s unspoken expectations.

Can Ramaphosa deliver? Time will tell. But the stakes have never been higher.

{Source: The Citizen}

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