Crime
SA crime stats 2025: Murder down 10% but three people still die every hour
When the latest crime statistics were released, there was a moment of cautious relief. Murders in South Africa dropped by 10% year on year during the October to December 2025 quarter.
On paper, that sounds like progress.
In reality, it still means almost three people are killed every single hour in this country.
The numbers behind the headlines
According to the latest figures from the South African Police Service, 6 351 people were murdered between October and December 2025. That is 602 fewer than the 6,953 recorded during the same period in 2024.
Broken down further, it means 2,117 people are killed every month. About 71 people lose their lives each day.
SAPS crime registrar Major General Thulare Sekhukhune welcomed the downward trend, noting that murder figures have been declining throughout 2025. After decades of rising violence, any reduction is significant.
But experts say perspective matters. A 10% drop does not erase the scale of the crisis.
The statistics also show 11,430 rapes were recorded during the same quarter. That works out to 127 rapes per day and more than five every hour.
These are not abstract figures. They represent families changed forever.
Why experts say there is nothing to celebrate
Chad Thomas, CEO of IRS Forensic Investigations, argues that the real weakness in South Africa’s fight against murder lies in the conviction rate.
Only around 12% of reported murder cases lead to convictions. He explains that the National Prosecuting Authority generally secures strong conviction rates in cases it takes to court. The problem is that many cases never reach that stage.
Poor detective work, limited infrastructure, a shortage of experienced investigators, and massive backlogs at state laboratories all contribute to weak case preparation.
Without consequences, Thomas warns, criminals grow bolder.
It is a sentiment many South Africans share. Social media reactions to the latest stats have been mixed. Some users welcomed the decrease. Others questioned what it means for ordinary people who still feel unsafe walking home, sitting at traffic lights, or running small businesses.
The forgotten victims
David Bruce, a consultant specialising in policing and criminal justice, highlights another uncomfortable truth.
Many murder victims are young men between 17 and 35, sometimes slightly older. They often live on the margins of society.
Bruce suggests that society reacts selectively to violence. Murders of women and farmers rightly receive public attention and outrage. Yet the violent deaths of thousands of young men rarely trigger the same sustained national conversation.
It raises a difficult question. Whose lives move us enough to demand real change?
Arrests versus real justice
The Democratic Alliance’s spokesperson on police, Lisa Schickerling, says South Africa remains trapped in a sustained violent crime crisis.
She argues that policing success is too often measured by arrest numbers. High-profile operations such as Operation Shanela may produce impressive arrest figures. But arrests alone do not make communities safer.
Communities are protected when cases are properly investigated, prosecuted successfully, and followed by meaningful sentences.
Weak investigations lead to weak prosecutions. Poorly prepared dockets collapse in court. When that happens, crime statistics become little more than a record of loss.
A problem bigger than policing
Professor Witness Maluleke, a senior criminologist at the University of Limpopo, reminds us that murder is not driven by one factor alone.
Social pressures, economic hardship, personal conflicts, and psychological issues all play a role. Violence in South Africa is deeply systemic. That makes it harder for the police to solve it alone.
In many communities, unemployment, substance abuse, and long-standing inequalities create conditions where conflict escalates quickly. Until those root causes are addressed, the numbers may shift, but the crisis remains.
A drop, yes. A turning point, not yet.
There is no doubt that fewer murders than last year is better than more. Every life saved matters.
But when nearly three people are still killed every hour, it is clear that this is not a moment for celebration. It is a reminder of how far the country still has to go.
South Africa’s crime statistics may show movement in the right direction. The real test will be whether that movement becomes meaningful change felt in homes, streets, and communities across the country.
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Source: The Citizen
Featured Image: CTV News
