Rising Oil Costs Threaten Another Fuel Price Hike For South Africans

After just a month of relief at the pumps, South African motorists may be heading for another hit to their wallets in December. Rising global oil prices and a softening rand are already putting pressure on local fuel recoveries, particularly for diesel users.

Diesel Takes The Hardest Knock

Data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that diesel prices are under significant strain. While petrol is still showing a small over-recovery of between 3 and 8 cents per litre, diesel is facing an under-recovery ranging from 57 to 70 cents per litre.

This means that unless global oil prices ease or the rand strengthens, diesel could see a sharp increase next month. Illuminating paraffin is also projected to rise by around 68 cents per litre, adding to the pressure on households heading into the festive season.

A Shaky Start To November

Early projections show the following shifts for November:

• Petrol 93: Decrease of 8 cents per litre

• Petrol 95: Decrease of 3 cents per litre

• Diesel 0.05%: Increase of 57 cents per litre

• Diesel 0.005%: Increase of 70 cents per litre

• Illuminating paraffin: Increase of 68 cents per litre

It’s too early to lock in what December’s prices will look like, but the early trends are clear: the rand’s recent weakness and climbing oil prices could easily tip the balance.

The Rand Loses Its Shine

For much of the year, the rand has been surprisingly resilient, even testing the R17 to the dollar mark. But its strength was less about domestic stability and more about the US dollar’s earlier weakness.

According to Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop, the dollar began strengthening again in mid-September after the first US interest rate cut of the year. This shift, coupled with a temporary government shutdown in the US that boosted investor confidence, has pushed the rand back into weaker territory.

Now, instead of trading between R17.20 and R17.30 to the dollar, the local currency has slipped to around R17.40, adding further pressure on imported fuel costs.

Oil Prices Edge Higher

Crude oil is the main culprit behind the current volatility. Brent crude has been moving between $60 and $64 a barrel, up from early October’s lower levels. Despite expectations for a global oversupply in 2026, short-term dynamicssuch as winter demand for diesel in the northern hemisphere and disruptions in Russian exportsare keeping prices high.

For South Africans, that means diesel costs tend to spike faster and higher than petrol during this season. While global analysts still expect prices to settle around $62 a barrel for the rest of the year, that’s little comfort for those filling up in December.

What It Means For Motorists

If oil prices continue to rise and the rand doesn’t rebound, South Africans could be paying significantly more for diesel and paraffin next month. Petrol may hold steady for now, but even that could change if global trends worsen.

With year-end travel, holiday spending, and load shedding all demanding more energy use, the timing couldn’t be worse for a spike in fuel costs.

Social media users have already begun venting frustrations, with many lamenting the short-lived relief from last month’s minor price cut. “We can’t catch a break,” one user wrote on X. “As soon as prices drop, they shoot back up again.”

For now, South Africans will be watching the markets closelyhoping for a dip in oil prices or a stronger rand to bring a little festive relief at the pumps.

{Source: Business Tech}

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