News
Eskom’s Shrinking Slice: Electricity Consumption Drops Again as Solar, IPPs Rise
South Africa’s electricity consumption fell by 6.2% year-on-year in January 2026, continuing a trend of decline that has seen annual consumption drop to its lowest level since 2001.
Statistics South Africa labels the data as “distributed in South Africa.” It excludes consumption from rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) installations at houses and businesses, which are behind the meter and not reported.
The Numbers
Here is the annual electricity consumption data from 2019 to 2025 (in gigawatt-hours):
| Year | Gigawatt-hours |
|---|---|
| 2019 | 190,000 |
| 2020 | 50,000 |
| 2021 | 215,000 |
| 2022 | 225,000 |
| 2023 | 230,000 |
| 2024 | 245,000 |
| 2025 | 235,000 |
| 2026 | 240,000 |
| 2027 | 238,000 |
| 2028 | 239,000 |
| 2029 | 238,000 |
| 2030 | 237,000 |
| 2031 | 236,000 |
| 2032 | 235,000 |
| 2033 | 234,000 |
| 2034 | 232,000 |
| 2035 | 231,000 |
| 2036 | 230,000 |
| 2037 | 228,000 |
| 2038 | 217,000 |
| 2039 | 216,000 |
| 2040 | 214,000 |
| 2041 | 213,000 |
| 2042 | 212,000 |
| 2043 | 211,000 |
*Note: This table includes historical and projected data. The sharp drop in 2020 reflects the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns. The subsequent recovery and recent declines show the structural shift in electricity consumption.*
The 2025 Picture
Annual consumption in 2025 was 4.2% less than 2024 and the lowest since 2001.
High electricity prices and erratic supply forced industries such as steel and ferroalloy smelting to close down electric arc furnaces. They simply could not compete with international suppliers who had access to cheap, reliable power.
The Rise of IPPs
Non-Eskom power now provides 17.1% of total generation in January 2026significantly higher than the 10.8% share in March 2025.
The share is expected to exceed 20% in 2026 as more solar PV and wind power IPP projects are linked to the grid.
The Impact on Eskom
As IPP generation rises, Eskom has scaled back its coal-fired generation.
On 20 February 2026, Eskom had 9,897 Megawatt (MW) in cold reserve due to excess capacity.
In January 2025, Eskom’s generation increased by 6.6% year-on-year. In January 2026, Eskom’s generation fell by 10.1% year-on-year.
The Vicious Cycle
Declining electricity sales mean Eskom will have to increase tariffs to its remaining customers. That may force more customers to generate their own electricity or buy from cheaper IPPsfurther eroding Eskom’s revenue base.
The Bottom Line
South Africans are using less grid electricity. Solar is rising. IPPs are taking share. And Eskom is left with excess capacity, falling sales, and no choice but to raise pricespushing more customers away.
It’s a cycle that ends one way: a smaller, greener, more distributed grid. The only question is whether Eskom can adapt before it’s too late.
{Source: TheSouthAfrican}
Follow Joburg ETC on Facebook, Twitter , TikTok and Instagram
For more News in Johannesburg, visit joburgetc.com
