The Numbers Are Up, But the Mood is Muted

There’s a cautious, almost reluctant, sigh of relief in the air. For the fourth consecutive quarter, South Africa’s economy has expanded. The latest figures from Statistics SA show a 0.5% rise in gross domestic product (GDP) for the three months ending September 2025. It’s growth, technically. But in the bustling taxi ranks, the quiet factory floors, and the crowded kitchen-table budgeting sessions, it doesn’t yet feel like a recovery.

The growth was broad-based, with nine out of ten industries posting gains. Trade, mining, and finance led the charge. Platinum group metals sparked a 2.3% rise in mining, while sectors like wholesale and retail saw modest upticks. The lone sore thumb was electricity, gas, and water, which shrank by 2.5%a reminder that our energy foundation, though improved, remains fragile.

Between the Lines: Public Investment and Private Hesitation

Digging into the details, economists spot a telling pattern. Dr. Elna Moolman of Standard Bank noted that fixed investment recovered, which is encouraging. However, the driver was “almost entirely the public sector.” This underscores a persistent challenge: the government is trying to spend on growth-friendly infrastructure, but the private sector, the real engine of job creation, is still holding back, its confidence subdued.

The government’s statement pointed to “green shoots”: improved freight movement at Transnet, the suspension of rolling blackouts, our exit from the global financial grey list, and a recent credit rating upgrade. These are undeniable wins, hard-fought by policymakers. They should, in theory, boost sentiment and attract investment.

Yet, as Lara Hodes from Investec put it, growth remains “insufficient to drive sustainable job creation.” This is the heart of the public’s disconnect from the GDP figures. An economy growing at less than 1% for the yearas forecast by KPMG’s Frank Blackmorecannot make a dent in the world’s highest unemployment rate.

The Long Road Ahead: Can Green Shoots Become a Garden?

The path forward is etched with both hope and hard reality. The South African Reserve Bank and National Treasury foresee a gradual acceleration, with growth potentially nearing 2% in the medium term, powered by reforms in energy and logistics.

But vulnerabilities loom. Professor Raymond Parsons of the North West University Business School highlighted the continued poor performance of manufacturing and the looming threat of new US import tariffs. The “steadier foundation” he mentions is real, but it is also newly laid and easily cracked.

The national conversation, reflected in social media chatter and talk radio, is less about decimal points of GDP and more about palpable change. People are asking: When will the shelves at the local spaza shop fill up more reliably? When will the local factory call back more workers?

The takeaway from this quarter’s data is one of a patient in stable condition but far from full health. The vital signs are slowly improvingno new crises, some healing in key areas. But the patient is not yet strong enough to get out of bed and run. The recovery is real, but for millions of South Africans, its pace still feels agonizingly, frustratingly sluggish. The real test will be whether these green shoots can survive the next economic frost and grow deep enough roots to support a thriving, inclusive economy.

{Source: IOL}

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