Oil, the US and South Africa’s Quiet Link to Venezuela

A relationship that’s small on paper, big on symbolism

On the surface, South Africa and Venezuela don’t look like major trading partners. The numbers are modest, the volumes small, and the relationship rarely makes headlines. But scratch beneath the surface and one word keeps resurfacing: oil.

Energy has long been the glue holding together South Africa’s diplomatic relationship with Venezuela, even as trade between the two countries has remained limited. And now, with the United States launching a military operation in Venezuela, that quiet connection has been pulled into the global spotlight.

How oil first brought Pretoria and Caracas together

South Africa and Venezuela formally established diplomatic relations in 1993, positioning themselves as partners within broader South-South cooperation frameworks. That relationship deepened in the late 2000s when PetroSA held oil exploration interests in Venezuela through cooperation agreements with the country’s state-owned oil company.

A framework agreement signed in 2008 expanded collaboration into energy, mining and agriculture, supported by a joint bilateral commission. At the time, Venezuela’s oil industry was still robust, and energy cooperation made strategic sense.

That momentum didn’t last.

Venezuela’s oil production has since collapsed by nearly 70% compared to the late 1990s, severely limiting its export capacity and shrinking the space for meaningful cooperation.

Trade exists, but it’s minimal

Despite the diplomatic architecture, actual trade remains small. In 2024, South Africa exported about $13 million worth of goods to Venezuela, mainly food products, vehicles, machinery and plastics. Imports from Venezuela were even lower, at roughly $3 million (R48.9 million), largely organic chemicals.

Oil imports, once central to the relationship, have steadily declined and now play almost no role.

Compared with South Africa’s trade with China, the EU or the US, Venezuela barely registers.

Why the US changed everything

That changed dramatically in the early hours of 3 January, when the United States launched a military strike on Venezuela, targeting government and military sites in Caracas and beyond.

US President Donald Trump confirmed that President Nicolás Maduro and his wife were captured and flown out of the country, describing the operation as both a law-enforcement action and a move to secure Venezuela’s oil infrastructure.

Venezuela holds some of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and Trump made it clear that oil was central to Washington’s calculations.

Suddenly, energy, long dormant in South Africa–Venezuela relations was back at the centre of global geopolitics.

South Africa’s balancing act

Pretoria has historically framed Venezuela as a strategic political partner in Latin America, even as economic engagement remained limited. South Africa’s broader trade with the region is shaped by the SACU–Mercosur agreement, though Venezuela’s suspension from Mercosur in 2016 reduced its practical impact.

Locally, South Africans watching the crisis unfold online have reacted with a mix of concern and scepticism. On social media, debates quickly turned to oil, sovereignty and whether global powers ever intervene without economic interests in mind.

For South Africa, the moment is delicate. The country has little direct economic exposure, but strong views on international law, sovereignty and non-intervention, principles shaped by its own history.

A quiet link, suddenly loud

South Africa’s relationship with Venezuela may be modest in trade terms, but oil has always made it strategically relevant. Now, with the US firmly in the picture, that quiet link feels louder, and more complicated, than ever.

What happens next won’t just shape Venezuela’s future. It could also test how countries like South Africa navigate diplomacy in a world where energy, power and politics are once again inseparable.

{Source: IOL}

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