‘The Real Dividing Line’: FAO Warns Mideast Tensions Could Deepen Global Food Risks

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East could heighten risks to global food security, particularly for countries heavily dependent on imported food, fertilizer, and fuel, Maximo Torero , chief economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), has said.

In a recent interview with Xinhua, Torero said the crisis is exposing the vulnerability of countries with limited domestic production and a heavy reliance on external supply routes.

“The real dividing line is not simply between rich and poor countries. It is between those with domestic buffers and those without.”

The Strait of Hormuz

The FAO warned in a recent report that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz a key route for global oil, gas, and fertilizer tradecould drive up costs across the agrifood system and put additional pressure on vulnerable economies.

Torero noted that some Gulf countries are highly exposed despite their wealth, as they rely heavily on food imports and seaborne trade. Financial resources may provide short-term relief, he said, but cannot replace disrupted supply routes.

High-Risk Regions

Torero pointed to South Asia and parts of sub-Saharan Africa as areas of concern. In these regions, shocks to fertilizer and energy supplies could quickly affect agricultural production, particularly during planting seasons.

“For low-income countries already using very limited agricultural inputs, even small supply cuts can cause disproportionately large production losses.”

The Sulfur Factor

Torero highlighted sulfur as a critical but often overlooked factor.

Though less discussed than oil or gas, sulfur is essential for producing phosphate fertilizers. Supply disruptions could have far-reaching effects beyond the conflict zone.

The Biological Deadline

“Agriculture runs on biological deadlines. If key planting windows are missed, later interventions cannot fully reverse the damage.”

He also warned that reduced fertilizer use does not necessarily lead to a proportionate decline in output. In fragile farming systems, even modest cuts can result in much sharper yield losses.

Early Action Needed

As the conflict continues to affect energy, fertilizer, and shipping markets, early action will be needed to mitigate the risk of broader stress on global food systems.

The Bottom Line

The dividing line is not rich vs poor. It’s those with domestic buffersand those without.

The Strait of Hormuz is disrupted. Fertilizer supplies are at risk. Sulfur is overlooked. And the clock is ticking on planting seasons.

The FAO is warning: act now, or face deeper food insecurity later.