Trump reshapes global order: what it means for South Africa

Trump reshapes global order: what it means for South Africa

US President Donald Trump’s bold and often unpredictable foreign policy is sending ripples across the globe and South Africa is feeling the tremors. Political analyst and North West University professor Andre Duvenhage warns that the country’s international standing is under serious strain, with limited optimism for the road ahead.

A world in flux

Trump’s high-profile interest in Greenland has become more than a headline, it’s a geopolitical flashpoint that is testing alliances and the cohesion of NATO. Earlier this month, the arrest and transfer of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife to the US on drug-trafficking charges added fuel to concerns about Washington’s approach to the sovereignty of nation-states.

Duvenhage says these moves are not isolated incidents. “We are witnessing a changing world order,” he said. “The Cold War era is long gone, but what we are entering now may be even more significant in shaping the 21st-century balance of power.”

America first, Europe divided

A defining feature of Trump’s approach is an unapologetic “America First” stance. Duvenhage notes that the US is increasingly questioning its commitments to NATO and Western allies.

“Why should the US defend Europe if Europe does not take responsibility for itself?” he said. The divide between the United States and major European powers including France, Germany, the UK, and Spain is widening. Even Italy, long considered an outlier, may align with the broader Western European position, he warns. “Some form of conflict is likely to emerge,” Duvenhage adds.

South Africa caught in the crossfire

For Pretoria, the changing world order is particularly worrying. Duvenhage is blunt: “South Africa’s position is being redefined, and I am not optimistic. The country’s international support base is declining, which has far-reaching consequences for politics and the economy, especially for the ANC.”

Recent tensions with the US over military exercises highlight the stakes. Three Iranian warships participated in drills off False Bay, alongside China and Russia, drawing sharp criticism from Washington. Pretoria initially asked Iran to withdraw, but the South African National Defence Force later confirmed the Iranian vessel participated.

The US Embassy condemned the move, pointing to Iran’s crackdown on anti-government protesters and warning that including Tehran in naval exercises risks damaging ties with key trading partners in Europe and the US. Defence analyst Helmoed-Römer Heitman added that South Africa bears the diplomatic cost, while Iran faces none.

Trump and Pretoria: a rocky relationship

Relations between Trump and South Africa have already been fraught. The US president has repeatedly singled out Pretoria, including pushing unverified claims of Afrikaner persecution. Earlier this year, he showcased a video in the Oval Office alleging a campaign against white farmers an assertion widely discredited.

In May, Trump even offered refugee status to Afrikaners, sending about 50 on a chartered flight to the US. By October, South Africa formally criticised the policy, emphasising that claims of a white genocide lacked credible evidence.

Analysts like Duvenhage suggest that South Africa must navigate a rapidly shifting global landscape, balancing relations with the US, Europe, and emerging powers like China and Russia. The inclusion of Iran in naval exercises, ongoing domestic pressures, and Trump’s unorthodox diplomacy all point to a more complicated and less predictable international environment.

“South Africa’s global position is no longer assured,” Duvenhage says. “The country must carefully consider its alliances, trade partnerships, and political decisions in an era where power is increasingly fluid, and old assumptions no longer hold.”

As the world order evolves, South Africa may find that diplomacy, strategy, and timing are now more critical than ever and missteps could have lasting consequences for politics, security, and economic growth.

{Source: The Citizen}

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