A Diplomatic Storm Is Brewing: Why Washington’s New Ambassador Signals Tough Times Ahead for SA

A Diplomatic Storm Is Brewing: Why Washington’s New Ambassador Signals Tough Times Ahead for SA

South Africa’s already strained relationship with the United States may be heading into its most uncomfortable chapter yet.

The confirmation of Leo Brent Bozell III as the new US Ambassador to South Africa has set off alarm bells in diplomatic and policy circles, with analysts warning that political tension between Pretoria and Washington is no longer a possibility, it’s a near certainty.

According to Ofentse Donald Davhie, an analyst at the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA), Bozell’s arrival represents more than just a routine diplomatic appointment. It signals a hardened US posture at a time when goodwill between the two countries is already in short supply.

And in this imbalance of power, Davhie says, South Africa is likely to feel the pressure far more than Washington.

Relations Already on Edge

To understand why Bozell’s appointment matters, you have to look at the backdrop against which he’s stepping into the role.

Relations between South Africa and the US have been deteriorating steadily since 2023, when then-US ambassador Reuben E. Brigety II accused South Africa of supplying military equipment to Russia an allegation Pretoria strongly denied but never fully shook off.

Since then, Washington’s frustration has only grown.

South Africa’s voting patterns at the United Nations, often aligning with China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela and other US adversaries, have not gone unnoticed. Nor has Pretoria’s reluctance to meaningfully engage on issues Washington considers non-negotiable.

By January 2025, scrutiny intensified sharply under the second Trump administration. Congress began circulating multiple Bills aimed at formally reassessing the US–South Africa relationship, an unprecedented move in the democratic era.

None of those Bills have passed yet, but Davhie stresses that their very existence sends a clear message.

Not a Blanket Punishment, But a Targeted One

One key point often missed in public debate is that these proposed laws do not target South Africa as a country.

Instead, they focus on specific individuals, particularly senior ANC leaders.

“This is not about punishing ordinary South Africans or cutting off business ties,” Davhie explains. “It’s about holding certain political figures accountable in Washington’s view.”

That distinction matters, but it doesn’t make the threat any less real.

The US has already placed South Africa on a human trafficking watch list, warning that failure to act could trigger sanctions. South Africa’s ambassador to Washington, Ebrahim Rasool, was declared persona non grata after making remarks seen as undiplomatic towards US President Donald Trump.

Add to that higher tariffs on South African goods, the US boycott of the G20 Summit in Johannesburg, and stalled trade negotiations and the picture becomes clear: patience in Washington is wearing thin.

Who Is Leo Brent Bozell III?

Bozell is no traditional career diplomat.

He comes with a strong conservative and right-wing background, deep media experience, and a reputation for ideological clarity, qualities that align neatly with Trump’s second-term foreign policy style.

What’s telling, Davhie notes, is how quickly Bozell was nominated and confirmed compared to Trump’s first-term ambassadorial pick.

“That speed suggests urgency,” he says. “And intent.”

If Bozell presents his credentials swiftly and remains in the role until the end of Trump’s second term in January 2029, he could become one of the longest-serving US ambassadors to South Africa in recent history, giving him significant influence over the tone and direction of bilateral relations.

Why Friction Feels Inevitable

The ideological gap between the two governments is hard to ignore.

On one side, a conservative US administration pushing national interest, security alignment and economic reform. On the other, an ANC-led coalition government with a left-leaning orientation and a strong emphasis on moral positioning in global affairs.

Davhie warns that this clash will only intensify if Pretoria continues to speak loudly on international issues while struggling to resolve domestic crises at home.

“This kind of moral posturing doesn’t play well in Washington,” he says, “especially when it’s not matched by action.”

The Real Risk for South Africa

Despite public fears, Davhie believes an outright ban on US investment in South Africa is highly unlikely. American companies remain deeply embedded in the local economy, and cutting those ties would hurt both sides.

The bigger risk lies elsewhere.

Sanctions targeting individual leaders, visa restrictions, asset freezes, and most critically, a formal review of bilateral relations are all very much on the table.

The existence of both House and Senate versions of the US–SA Bilateral Relations Review Act suggests growing appetite in Congress to act.

“This is what the ANC is watching closely,” Davhie says. “They can see it coming.”

A Narrow Path Forward

So what can South Africa do?

Davhie believes the answer lies in pragmatism rather than politics.

Shifting the relationship away from ideological disagreements and towards trade, investment, and people-to-people ties may be Pretoria’s best and possibly only, viable strategy.

Washington has been clear about its concerns, particularly around Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policies, expropriation without compensation, and farm murders. So far, the response from Pretoria has been muted.

To its credit, the Department of Trade has continued engaging with the US Trade Representative in an effort to secure a trade deal. But without corresponding political movement, those efforts may not be enough.

As Bozell prepares to take up his post, one thing is certain: the days of quiet diplomacy between South Africa and the United States are over.

What comes next will depend on whether Pretoria is willing, or able to change course.

{Source: Daily Investor}

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