Behind the Record: Experts Warn South Africa’s Matric Pass Rate Masks a Hidden Dropout Crisis

Behind the Record: Experts Warn South Africa’s Matric Pass Rate Masks a Hidden Dropout Crisis

South Africa is celebrating a milestone: the Class of 2025 achieved an 88% National Senior Certificate (NSC) pass rate, the highest on record. KwaZulu-Natal led the provinces with a pass rate of 90.6%, and most other provinces scored above 80%.

At first glance, it seems like a victory. But education experts are urging caution, warning that the headline numbers obscure a far grimmer reality: the “real” pass rate, calculated from pupils who started Grade 1 twelve years ago, is only 57.7%.

The Numbers You Don’t See

Prof Kathija Yassim of the University of Johannesburg explains that focusing solely on Grade 12 results paints an incomplete picture. “Cohort analysis, tracking learners from Grade 1 through to matric, reveals systemic challenges including early dropout, repetition, socioeconomic pressures, and uneven school quality,” she says.

In other words, nearly half of the children who started school in 2014 never reached matric or if they did, they didn’t pass. Yassim warns that celebrating the official matric pass rate alone risks masking the persistent structural inequalities within the system.

Gateway Subjects Tell the Real Story

Experts stress that the quality of education is not only about passing matric but also about sustained learning, particularly in subjects like mathematics and physical sciences. These subjects are crucial for access to scarce skills jobs and university programs in STEM fields.

“Large numbers of learners leave the system early or avoid these subjects, highlighting systemic inequities rather than individual failure,” Yassim explains. “The issue isn’t just passing Grade 12 it’s the uneven quality of learning throughout the schooling journey.”

Voices of Concern

Former UFS rector Jonathan Jansen criticised the focus on Grade 12 outcomes, pointing to the low pass requirements and systemic failures. On X, he wrote:

“Schools with lavish facilities are supposed to do well. But the system fails the majority. Change the foundations of learning Grade 12 is too late.”

ActionSA president Herman Mashaba echoed these concerns, highlighting that the 57.7% real pass rate reflects a school system still failing too many learners.

Education expert Hendrick Makaneta added that South Africa continues to lag internationally in maths and science, and austerity measures have exacerbated systemic weaknesses. “It is not acceptable for the state to continuously produce graduates who are unemployable,” he said.

Defending the System

Not everyone agrees with the critics. Matakanye Matakanye, chair of the National Association of School Governing Bodies, defended the system and celebrated the gains in matric results.

Meanwhile, Basil Manuel of the National Professional Teachers’ Organisation of South Africa acknowledged the need for systemic reform, noting that some learner attrition is inevitable but should be minimized.

“You can never have 100% throughput from Grade 1 to Grade 12, but the dropout rate should be far smaller,” he said.

The Takeaway

The 2025 matric results are both a milestone and a mirror. While thousands of learners and teachers have reasons to celebrate, the figures expose a persistent challenge: access to education alone does not guarantee success.

The real story lies in the journey retention, quality teaching, early intervention, and equitable support throughout the school years. Until these systemic gaps are addressed, headline pass rates will continue to offer a skewed view of South Africa’s education system.

For policymakers, educators, and parents, the lesson is clear: celebrating the 88% pass rate is important, but confronting the 57.7% reality is urgent. The future of the nation depends not just on those who cross the matric finish line, but on all learners who start the race.

{Source: The Citizen}

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