A Fragile Ascent: World Bank Forecasts Stronger Growth for Sub-Saharan Africa Amidst Daunting Challenges

Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is on a path of gradual strengthening, with growth expected to firm to 4.3% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report. This cautiously optimistic outlook, however, is clouded by persistent risks, inadequate job creation, and the sobering reality that growth remains too slow to significantly reduce extreme poverty in the world’s youngest and fastest-growing population.

The region’s estimated growth rose to 4.0% in 2025, up from 3.7% in 2024, buoyed by moderating inflation, stronger commodity prices for gold and coffee, and improving financial conditions that allowed countries like Nigeria and Angola to regain access to international capital markets.

A Tale of Three Giants: Diverging Paths

Performance among the region’s largest economies was mixed:

• South Africa’s growth is estimated at 1.3% in 2025, supported by a more reliable electricity supply, a strong agricultural harvest, and improving business confidence.

• Nigeria edged up to 4.2%, driven by expansion in services like finance and ICT.

• Ethiopia, while slowing to 7.2%, remains one of the region’s fastest-growing economies.

The Twin Shadows: Poverty and “The World’s Largest Youth Bulge”

Despite the improving headline numbers, the report sounds a major alarm. Per capita income growth is projected at a modest 2% annuallyinsufficient to generate the jobs needed for the region’s exploding workforce. With an estimated 270 million youths in 2025, Sub-Saharan Africa faces “the world’s largest increase in working-age population” while productive job creation lags severely.

“The sharp reduction in official development assistance since 2024 has further constrained fiscal space,” the Bank notes, weakening the region’s buffer against external shocks.

External Risks and a Critical Lifeline Extended

The outlook remains vulnerable. The expiration of the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) posed a significant threat to exporters like Kenya, South Africa, and Lesotho. However, in a timely relief, the U.S. House of Representatives this week extended AGOA for another three years, safeguarding a crucial trade lifeline.

Other risks include persistent conflict, climate shocks, stalled reforms, and further global trade fragmentation.

Globally, the World Bank notes resilience but warns of stagnation. “The global economy is set to grow slower than it did in the troubled 1990swhile carrying record levels of public and private debt,” said Chief Economist Indermit Gill. He urged governments to “aggressively liberalize private investment and trade, rein in public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education.”

For Sub-Saharan Africa, the message is clear: the macroeconomic tide is turning favorable, but translating this into broad-based prosperity for its millions of young people will require more than just GDP growthit demands transformative policies, sustained investment, and a stable global environment. The ascent has begun, but the path remains steep and fragile.