Petrol set for cut but diesel likely to rise in August, CEF projections show

South African motorists face a mixed fuel outlook for August 2026, with petrol likely to fall but diesel forecast to rise, according to The South African.

Overview of projected changes

According to The South African, the Central Energy Fund (CEF) daily fuel price data based on recoveries as of 22 July 2026 shows petrol enjoying healthy over-recoveries while diesel has moved deeper into under-recovery territory.

CEF projections for August 2026

The CEF projections published via The South African give specific expected changes for early August:

• Petrol 93: decrease of 59 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: decrease of 54 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05%: increase of 87 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005%: increase of 66 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of 62 cents per litre

What is driving the split outlook?

According to The South African, escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed global oil prices higher, eroding fuel over-recoveries an effect that has hit diesel more sharply because of its sensitivity to international distillate prices.

Market indicators cited

The South African reported the market figures at the time of publication as Brent crude: $98.52 per barrel and Rand/US dollar: R16.41/$, which the report links to the narrowing of petrol’s cushion and the deepening diesel under-recovery.

Policy response and timing

The South African noted that government has accelerated plans to improve fuel security and that the official fuel price adjustments will be announced by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources at the end of July, with new prices expected to take effect in early August.

Bottom line for motorists

In summary, petrol users may still see a meaningful price reduction in August if market conditions do not change, while diesel motorists are likely to face significant increases unless international oil prices retreat during the remainder of the pricing cycle, according to The South African.