Stats SA: Eastern Cape suffers largest net migration loss in decade

New Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) estimates show the Eastern Cape recorded the largest net migration loss among provinces between 2016 and 2026. The province lost 587 658 people over the period, according to the data.

Who gained and who lost

The Stats SA figures combine internal migration between provinces and net international migration. Gauteng recorded the largest net gain, adding 1 654 388 people between 2016 and 2026. The Western Cape attracted 632 021 more people than it lost.

Projections for 2021–2026

Stats SA projected that between 2021 and 2026, Gauteng would receive about 1.42 million migrants and the Western Cape would attract just over 500 000. The agency said these two provinces consistently received the highest number of migrants, including international arrivals.

Why the Eastern Cape is losing residents

Stats SA linked the Eastern Cape’s population decline to economic challenges. The province regularly records one of the country’s highest unemployment rates, with official unemployment reported between 39% and 41%, and the expanded unemployment rate often above 50%. Youth unemployment frequently exceeds 55%. Outside major centres such as Gqeberha and East London, the report said employment opportunities remain limited.

According to Stats SA, widespread rural poverty, fewer tertiary education opportunities and a relatively small labour market contribute to residents relocating to provinces like Gauteng and the Western Cape in search of better job prospects, higher incomes and improved access to services.

Other provincial trends

The estimates show mixed patterns across other provinces for 2021–2026:

• KwaZulu-Natal: projected net migration gain of 32 538.
• Mpumalanga: projected net gain of 81 493.
• North West: projected net gain of 109 142.
• Northern Cape: projected net gain of 7 888.
• Free State: projected net loss of 13 383.
• Limpopo: recorded the second-largest migration loss over the decade, losing 307 609 people, the report said.

What the data reflect

Stats SA’s migration estimates reflect internal movements between provinces alongside international arrivals and departures. The figures show sustained attraction to Gauteng and the Western Cape and continued outflows from provinces facing economic and employment constraints.