Analysts warn Zuma’s expulsions could dent MK Party ahead of local polls

Former president Jacob Zuma’s recent expulsions of senior figures from the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party have drawn sharp criticism from political analysts, who warn the moves could damage the party’s prospects in the upcoming local government elections.

Who was expelled and parliamentary moves

The party expelled Khanyisile Litchfield-Tshabalala and Pumlani Kubukeli, who have vowed to legally challenge their removal. Zuma asked parliament to remove the two as MPs, saying they had “brought the party into disrepute” but did not elaborate.

Analysts point to power consolidation and insecurity

Prof Dirk Kotzé, a political scientist at Unisa, told reporters he thought Zuma most likely saw Litchfield-Tshabalala and Kubukeli as threats because they were senior figures in the party.

Prof Ntsikelelo Breakfast, from Nelson Mandela University, criticised the party’s approach to dissent, saying it dismisses members who disagree with Zuma and that this is “unfortunate” for a party that has done well in recent national elections.

“It is unfortunate decisions could be made about some members of the party without their knowledge,”

“In MK, if people seem to break ranks, they get dismissed, expelled or disciplined, and that is unfortunate for a party that has done well in recent national elections.”

Risks for MK ahead of local elections

Breakfast warned the party “runs the risk of not having an upward electoral trajectory in the local government elections because of these poor decisions.” He said MK needs to democratise and hold a conference to elect proper structures to make disciplinary decisions rather than leaving them to an individual.

Internal instability and lack of dispute mechanisms

Analyst Ralph Mathekga said the way disciplinary matters are handled has produced unpredictability and instability, which he linked to the party’s youth and lack of internal dispute-resolution mechanisms. He said this creates a system that “operates on the whims of one person, Zuma.”

“People leave MK in the same way they joined and this points to a party that is operating on the whims of one person, Zuma.”

Mathekga added that senior members being unsettled and uncertain about who might be expelled next could be a problem the party needs to address.

Historical note on Zuma’s consolidation tactics

Kotzé pointed to Zuma’s record in national office as context, noting that as president Zuma implemented 12 Cabinet reshuffles and established 65 ministerial positions, actions he said were ways of consolidating power.

The expelled members have said they will challenge their removal in court, and analysts say the party’s internal handling of disputes will be a factor to watch as the local government elections approach.