JSE Sheds R3-Trillion in Worst Monthly Rout Since 2008 Crisis

The JSE’s torrid March saw the bourse shed more than R3 trillion in value as the raging war in the Middle East weighed on sentiment, marking the worst monthly losses since the 2008 global financial crisis.

The Numbers

• End-February market cap: R26.6 trillion (record high)

• End-March market cap: R23.2 trillion

• Loss: R3.4 trillion

The month’s performance marks a stunning reversal in fortunes for a bourse that closed 2025 with a market capitalisation of R24 trillion, with the value of South Africa’s listed equities equivalent to about 313% of GDP.

The Analysis

“The all share index faced double-digit losses for the month, which will pull first-quarter returns into negative territory. Apart from the general rise in risk aversion, there are sector-specific issues,” said Izak Odendaal of Old Mutual Wealth.

“Resource shares have taken a beating as precious metal prices pulled back, while higher bond yields have weighed on financials.”

The Context

The domestic share market excelled in 2025, in its best performance since 2005. In dollar terms, it rose 55.3%, significantly outperforming its emerging- and developed-market peers.

The index breached the 100,000-point milestone last year, a symbolic marker of South Africa’s rerating trajectory.

This momentum has been brought to a screeching halt by the Middle East war.

Bonds

South Africa’s bonds, whose yields were at multiyear lows before the war, have risen sharply:

Higher yields will raise borrowing costs for the country just as they were reaching reasonable levels.

The Outlook

Herman van Papendorp , head of asset allocation at Momentum Investments, said the escalation of the Iran conflict into an all-out war introduced near-term market volatility, particularly through energy channels.

However, historical evidence suggests that unless such shocks are accompanied by a US recession, their effect on global asset class returns tends to be temporary.

“Valuations in developed market equities and bonds are generally elevated, while South Africa’s asset classes continue to embed significant risk premiums despite improving domestic fundamentals, creating a favourable asymmetry between upside potential and downside risk for local assets.”

The Bottom Line

R3.4 trillion gone in a month. The worst rout since 2008. Bonds are up. Resources are down. The war is raging.

South Africa’s markets are bleedingand no one knows when it will stop.