Tara Roos says coalition politics reshaped by identity and opportunism in new book

Journalist Hein Kaiser reports In her debut book Where To From Here, journalist and author Tara Roos examines the rise of coalition politics in South Africa and argues the country’s political contests are increasingly shaped by identity and opportunism rather than traditional ideology.

Coalitions, negotiation and an unfinished framework

Roos writes about a new political reality: coalitions have become a sustained feature of South African politics. She says the constitution provides a framework that allows coalitions to exist but offers little guidance on how they should function, leaving governance more dependent on negotiation than on a clear structure.

She suggests that this gap has turned coalition-making into a post-election process of deals struck behind closed doors, creating uncertainty for voters about how their choices translate into outcomes.

Identity, blocs and shifting votes

Roos highlights how politics has moved beyond policy into questions of identity and consolidation. She points to the coloured vote in the Western Cape and Afrikaner voters shifting toward the Freedom Front Plus as examples of targeted voter blocs.

She also describes a broader pattern in which parties that speak directly to electorate frustration gain traction because they offer clear answers, even if those answers are contested. Roos uses the Patriotic Alliance’s gains among coloured voters, and Gayton McKenzie’s direct approach, as an illustration, saying it made Patricia de Lille’s party obsolete.

Agreement on problems, divergence on solutions

Roos argues South Africans broadly agree on the problems facing the country including crime, the state of the economy, gender-based violence and the cost of living but she says consensus breaks down when it comes to solving those problems.

“Everyone is worried about crime, everyone is worried about the state of the economy, everyone is very worried about issues like gender-based violence, the cost of living,” she says.

“We don’t know how to solve these issues together and that’s where the divergence is,” she says.

The DA, messaging and the Helen Zille factor

Roos assesses the Democratic Alliance’s challenges ahead of municipal elections, saying the party has not been able to crack Joburg or Gauteng and that extending its reach remains a major structural challenge.

She singles out messaging as a problem for the DA, noting that positions such as scrapping B-BBEE without a clear alternative leave voters unconvinced.

“She is likely to bring out the most votes in Joburg,” Roos says of Helen Zille, but she calls the Zille factor both a signal of party desperation and a strategy.

Roos adds that the DA’s standing with other parties limits how much Zille’s presence can change coalition math: animosity from other parties will not gain Zille enough support to meet a 50-plus-one requirement, she says.

About the book

Roos began writing Where To From Here several years ago and set out to offer a perspective different from the standard political playbook. She says the book draws on her research, time in parliament and political journalism, and aims to capture the political moment without softening its edges.

“If nothing else, I am extremely real in this book,” she says.

Roos concludes that parties who articulate direct answers to voter frustration and those who organise identity-based blocs will continue to shape the country’s coalition landscape.