More fuel pain ahead: steep petrol and diesel increases predicted for September

South African motorists face fresh fuel-price pain in September, with the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicating steep diesel increases and petrol hikes that could reach as much as 80–90 cents per litre by month-end.

What the CEF snapshot shows

CEF data point to diesel increases in the region of R2.73 per litre for 500ppm and R2.90 for 50ppm. For petrol, CEF shows under-recoveries of 66 cents for 93 Unleaded and 77 cents for 95 Unleaded, which could grow to about 80–90 cents if current trends persist by the time final month-end calculations are made.

Other fuel movements

Illuminating paraffin is forecast to rise by about R2.14.

Recent price history

The article notes a volatile few months for local pump prices. According to the reported figures, the price of 95 Unleaded rose from R19.47 in March to R24.71 in August, peaking at R27.19 in June. The wholesale price of diesel increased from R17.70 in March to R25.30 in August, with a peak of R30.30 in May.

At the start of August, both grades of petrol decreased by 52 cents per litre, while diesel increased by between R1.23 (50ppm) and R1.38 (500ppm).

International drivers of volatility

International oil markets have been highly volatile since the US-Israeli war with Iran began in late February, with the Strait of Hormuz mostly shut to shipping traffic at times. By August, Brent crude was reported trading mostly around $90 per barrel, down from highs near $126 earlier in the year, but still well above pre-war levels of around $70.

Commenting on the outlook for flows through the Strait of Hormuz, SEB commodities analyst Ole Hvalbye told Reuters:

“A return to normal flows out of the Strait of Hormuz is now suddenly without any near-term hopes.”

Analysts’ price outlook

The piece reports analysts see a gradual softening of international oil prices. JP Morgan is cited as predicting an average Brent price of around $86 per barrel for Q3, falling to $80 in Q4 and to $78 in 2027.

What this means for motorists

CEF’s snapshot and recent international volatility suggest pump prices may rise again when September’s final calculations are made, with diesel facing particularly large increases and petrol likely to see notable hikes if current trends continue.