Brace Yourself: Fuel Prices Could Spike Sharply in May as Global Tensions Hit SA

If you’ve been holding your breath at the petrol pump lately, May might not bring much relief. In fact, it could get significantly more expensive to fill up.

Fresh projections point to steep fuel price hikes on the horizon, with global events far beyond South Africa’s borders starting to bite locally.

A Global Flashpoint With Local Consequences

At the centre of it all is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil routes. Recent military action by the United States has disrupted movement through this narrow passage, which handles about a fifth of global oil and gas trade.

That disruption is already being felt. Shipping patterns have shifted, tanker traffic has slowed, and uncertainty is creeping into global energy markets.

For South Africa, which depends heavily on imported fuel, this kind of instability rarely stays “over there”. It travels quickly, straight to the forecourt.

Oil Prices Jitter As Markets React

In the immediate aftermath, oil prices surged past the $100 per barrel mark, reflecting fears that supply could tighten.

While prices have since dipped slightly, the market remains on edge. Even the threat of further disruption is enough to push costs higher, especially when key shipping lanes are under pressure.

At the time of writing, Brent crude is sitting at around $98.48 per barrel, still elevated enough to keep fuel price concerns alive.

What This Means For South African Motorists

Locally, fuel prices are shaped by two key factors: global oil prices and the rand’s performance against the US dollar.

Right now, neither is offering much comfort. The rand is trading at around R16.36 to the dollar, adding further pressure to already rising international costs.

And because South Africa adjusts fuel prices monthly, any sustained increase in these factors tends to show up quickly.

Latest Fuel Price Projections For May

If current conditions hold, motorists could be looking at some of the sharpest increases in recent months:

• Petrol 93: expected increase of 282 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: expected increase of 320 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05%: expected increase of 961 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005%: expected increase of 964 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: expected increase of 759 cents per litre

These figures come from the Central Energy Fund and reflect current market trends. However, they are not final and could still shift before the official adjustment.

Why The Numbers Could Still Change

There is still some room for movement before prices are locked in.

Currency fluctuations, shifts in oil prices, or any breakthrough in international negotiations could ease pressure slightly. On the other hand, further escalation or prolonged disruption could push prices even higher.

It is a waiting game, but one where the stakes are high for everyday South Africans.

A Tough Month Ahead?

For households already juggling rising living costs, a sharp jump in fuel prices would ripple far beyond the pump. Transport costs, food prices, and daily expenses tend to follow.

The final fuel price adjustments will be confirmed later this month, with new prices expected to take effect at midnight on 5 May.

Until then, motorists may want to prepare for a tougher month on the road.