September fuel prices set to jump as international oil stays high, CEF data shows

South Africa faces steep fuel price increases in September, according to the latest daily snapshot from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), as international oil prices remain elevated amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Projected increases by grade

The CEF data points to a petrol increase of around 90 cents for 93 Unleaded and R1.01 for 95 Unleaded. The snapshot indicates diesel could climb sharply, by about R2.88 for 500ppm and R3.09 for 50ppm. Illuminating paraffin is flagged for an increase of approximately R2.23.

Potential for larger increases

The CEF report warns that the current daily data are “even further in the red”, and that the projected “over-recovery” may grow by the end of the month.

Recent price movements this year

Fuel prices have been volatile in 2026. The price of 95 Unleaded rose from R19.47 to R24.71 between March and August, peaking at R27.19 in June. The wholesale price of diesel increased from R17.70 in March to R25.30 in August, with a peak of R30.30 in May. At the start of August, both petrol grades decreased by 52 cents per litre, while diesel rose by between R1.23 (50ppm) and R1.38 (500ppm).

International drivers of volatility

Global oil markets have been unsettled since the US-Israeli war with Iran began in late February. The conflict has affected shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil passage, and pushed international prices well above pre-war levels.

While Brent crude traded mostly around $90 per barrel in August, this was down from highs of about $126 earlier in the year and remains above pre-war levels of around $70.

“A return to normal flows out of the Strait of Hormuz is now suddenly without any near-term hopes,”

Ole Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB, speaking to Reuters.

Analysts’ outlook

Some analysts expect gradual softening of international prices. The source cites JP Morgan projecting an average Brent price of about $86 for the third quarter, falling to $80 in the fourth quarter and $78 in 2027.

What this means for consumers

If the CEF projections hold, motorists and businesses can expect significant increases at the pump in September across petrol, diesel and illuminating paraffin. The CEF snapshot suggests the potential for the increases to be larger still by month-end.