Trade ties likely to survive political row, expert says

South Africa’s trade with the United States is unlikely to be severed by the current political dispute, a trade expert has told IOL, pointing to precious metals as the backbone of exports to Washington.

Who, what and why it matters

Last week the US announced visa restrictions against certain South Africans, a move described by US ambassador Brent Bozell as “only the first step in a series of escalatory measures.” The restrictions add to already strained relations between Washington and Pretoria.

Trade remains large and concentrated

South Africa exported R260 billion worth of goods to the US last year, equivalent to 3.3% of gross domestic product, according to the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition. That figure rose from R238 billion in 2024.

A trade expert, Donald MacKay, founder and CEO of XA Global Trade Advisors, said the political fight should be treated separately from trade. He noted that gold and platinum now make up more than half of what South Africa sends to the US, and added: “I don’t think US President Donald Trump is going to cut off the US from importing our gold or platinum, for example, and that is now way more than half of what we send to the US.”

How the trade relationship is structured

More than 89% of South African exports to the US entered under ordinary Most Favoured Nation terms rather than preferential arrangements such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). US figures put total goods and services trade between the countries at $28.8 billion (R1.77 trillion) in 2025.

AGOA’s limited role, and the impact on sectors

MacKay said AGOA’s cash value to South Africa was small relative to total trade. He said that before Liberation Day the total duty saved under AGOA amounted to R2 billion a year and called that “literally a rounding error” against trade measured in the trillions of rands.

Cars were the biggest beneficiary of AGOA because the programme removed the ordinary 2.5% US import duty on qualifying South African vehicles. However, Trump’s Section 232 measures later imposed an additional 25% tariff on automotive imports. As MacKay explained: “And because it’s a Section 232 duty, we now have 25% plus 2.5% and we get the 2.5% discounted,” making the AGOA preference much less meaningful for autos.

MacKay said minerals and metals such as platinum are largely unaffected by AGOA because they do not attract ordinary duties. He noted one exception: agriculture, which he said sees a non-trivial benefit from AGOA but represents a relatively small part of total trade to the US.

Why trade may outlast politics

MacKay urged caution about assuming that recent political escalation will spill over into trade. He said: “We have no idea what this means at the moment, and I think we must be very, very careful to not give this this fire oxygen, which is what I think Trump wants at the moment. I’m not sure how much is actually here versus how much is simply hot air.”

Given the concentration of exports in precious metals and the dominance of ordinary Most Favoured Nation terms for shipments to the US, MacKay concluded that the current political tensions were unlikely to close off the trade relationship.

Key figures cited

• R260 billion South African goods exported to the US last year
• R238 billion South Africa’s exports to the US in 2024
• 3.3% Exports to the US as a share of GDP
• More than 89% Exports entered under Most Favoured Nation terms
• R2 billion Estimated annual duty saved under AGOA
• $28.8 billion (R1.77 trillion) Total US–South Africa goods and services trade in 2025